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You’ve likely been following the unfolding situation in Iran: headlines filled with military operations putting the Middle East region on edge. While Washington favors deterrence and rapid response, the United Kingdom and European capitals are advocating restraint and multilateral engagement, carefully avoiding involvement in a conflict they did not initiate. But is this simply a routine policy divergence over an ongoing conflict, or the signal of a deep transformation in transatlantic relations in the years ahead?

 

For decades, Europe and the United States have shared values and strategic interests that sustained a powerful alliance. From the conflicts of the twentieth century to the post-Cold War order, this partnership proved remarkably resilient, anchored by institutions such as NATO in the realm of security. Yet today, paradoxically, the relationship appears more turbulent than during periods of far greater global threats.

 

The reason is not disruption, but evolution. As the European Union seeks to assert a stronger strategic identity, the United States is acting with greater autonomy in an increasingly complex security environment. The result is a shift from automatic alignment to selective cooperation, less unity by default and more coordination through negotiation over issue-specific priorities, interests, and capabilities. In this context, Europe is increasingly called upon to develop its own defense and security architecture, building capabilities that allow it to act autonomously when necessary while remaining a reliable and longstanding partner to the United States.

 

This evolution also suggests that the Western bloc may no longer exist in its traditional form as we have known it for decades, as shared values and interests become increasingly fragmented and context dependent. This recalibration comes at a time of mounting global pressure where a multipolar order is taking shape, economic and technological competition is intensifying, and non-Western powers namely Russia and China are gaining influence.

 

In this context, transatlantic differences, once manageable, carry greater weight and consequence an for countries in the Global South, they raise key questions. How should states aligned with the West navigate a world where Washington and Brussels are not always united? To what extent can non-aligned countries influence global security, trade, and development decisions? How can they balance strategic autonomy with engagement in a multipolar order where Western positions may be fragmented or unpredictable?

 

In this newsletter we try to explore the evolving dynamics of transatlantic relations, the structural forces driving this shift, and their broader implications for the global order, particularly for countries in the Global South, which must navigate an increasingly fragmented and uncertain global environment.

PUBLICATIONS

The U.S. and the Current International Reconfiguration (Part I)

 

Paul Isbell

 

This Policy paper examines the evolving role of the United States in a multipolar world and its implications for pan-Atlanticism. It situates the Atlantic Basin as a strategic region for cooperation and competition, shaped by both Northern, Southern, and Eurasian actors. The series originally traced pan-Atlanticism’s emergence and ideological interpretations before Trump’s second term. Since April 2025, U.S. trade, foreign, and domestic policies, often unilateral and unprecedented, have reshaped the global landscape. This paper reassesses U.S. influence and the prospects for Atlantic Basin cooperation amid these changes... Read more

 

 

Legalized Power? The Board of Peace and the Governance of Conflict

 

Ferid Belhaj

 

This piece analyzes the Board of Peace as a contemporary experiment in peace governance and hegemonic power management. Formally authorized by the UN Security Council, its legal and institutional foundations remain fragile and ambiguously constrained. Drawing on historical and comparative examples, the Board illustrates how crisis-driven, sponsor-led mechanisms often precede formal legal codification. Under Trump’s second administration, it reflects a preference for flexible, executive-style governance that can bypass traditional multilateral constraints. Its long-term legitimacy depends on evolving toward rule-bound practice rather than entrenching hegemonic expediency that risks undermining the Security Council and international norms... Read more

 

Transatlantic Relations in Times of Transition

 

Marcus Vinicius de Freitas

 

This policy brief traces the historical evolution of transatlantic relations from the Peace of Westphalia to the post-Cold War era. It highlights the alliance’s resilience in adapting to global power shifts and maintaining Western influence through institutions like NATO. Rising powers, economic competition, and renewed geopolitical tensions now mark a new period of transition. The transatlantic alliance faces the challenge of redefining its role in a multipolar world. Effective collaboration with partners in Latin America and Africa will be crucial for sustaining global stability... Read more

 

 

(FR) BRICS 2025: A Double Expansion Strengthening China’s Leadership

 

Henri-Louis Védie

 

This brief explores the 2025 BRICS double expansion, which adds five new members and establishes a “partner state” category, reshaping the bloc as BRICS+5. Driven by China, the move consolidates its leadership, despite some opposition from India and Brazil. Economically, China steers the group away from de-dollarization initiatives, strengthening its influence over global finance. The BRICS Development Bank and the China-led AIIB further cement Beijing’s strategic control. The expansion underscores how BRICS growth can simultaneously broaden the bloc while reinforcing China’s dominance... Read more

 

 

OP-EDS

Transmission Channels of the War on Iran to the Brazilian Economy

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

In this op-ed, the author explores a surprising ripple effect of the U.S.–Iran war on Brazil’s economy. While soaring oil prices boost the country’s export revenues, they also drive-up domestic fuel costs, pushing inflation and transport expenses higher. Meanwhile, critical fertilizer imports from the Middle East are disrupted, putting corn, soy, and wheat harvests at risk. Short-term fiscal and monetary measures offer some relief, but a prolonged conflict could worsen shortages and price spikes. Brazil now faces a delicate balancing act: navigating energy shocks while keeping its agricultural engine running... Read more

 

 

From Washington to Beijing: The Global South’s Search for Sovereignty

 

Marcus Vinicius de Freitas

 

The Global South faces a choice: repeat past Western prescriptions or reclaim real sovereignty, learning from China’s state-led development to shape its own path rather than importing ready-made models. Will these nations dare to chart a future on their own terms?... Read more

 

 

BOOK

Aftermath of War in Europe: The West VS. the Global South?

 

Edited by Len Ishmael

 

The book examines how the Global South views the crises triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. It highlights rising debt, inflation, and social tensions that threaten economic recovery in developing countries. While the West has unified around sanctions and NATO solidarity, many Global South nations remain neutral, seeking stability and a voice in global governance. The conflict and its fallout are accelerating the formation of non-Western alliances and a potential two-bloc world. The publication underscores the high stakes for both Western powers and the Global South amid shifting global power dynamics... Read more

 

 

PODCAST

Transatlantic Crossroads - The Future of Europe-USA Relations

 

As global power dynamics evolve, the transatlantic relationship remains a cornerstone of international security, trade, and diplomacy. However, shifting alliances, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions challenge the traditional pillars of US-EU cooperation. In this episode, we explore the future of transatlantic relations, delving into NATO’s role in global security, the impact of US-EU economic policies, and the geopolitical shifts shaping Europe and America’s strategic priorities... Listen

 

 

INSIGHTS FROM ATLANTIC DIALOGUES

America First, Negotiation Room for Others?

 

The “America First” policy, central to the Trump administration, has reshaped US foreign and domestic policy with far-reaching global consequences. From redefining official development assistance, trade agreements, and alliances to influencing migration policies, climate negotiations, and AI governance, its impact has been profound and wide-ranging. This session explore how this policy has challenged traditional diplomatic norms and prompted other countries to rethink their engagement strategies with the United States... Watch

 

 

North-South Atlantic Partnerships: Managing Expectations and Realities

 

In an era of global interdependence, North–South partnerships remain central to addressing shared challenges from sustainable development and energy transition to digital transformation and migration. Yet, despite renewed rhetoric around “mutual benefit” and “shared prosperity,” these relationships are often marked by asymmetries in power, finance, and voice. Expectations from the Global South regarding technology transfer, fair trade, and governance reform frequently collide with the realities of strategic interests, conditionalities, and divergent priorities among Northern partners... Watch

 

 

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