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The architecture of international economic cooperation is being rewritten. Fiscal constraints are tightening, geopolitical competition is intensifying, and governments are becoming more selective about where they deploy public resources abroad. Policies once framed around collective responsibility are increasingly being assessed through the lens of national interest.

 

Development finance is part of this realignment. Official Development Assistance (ODA) is under growing political pressure, while the international aid system, built for an era in which a relatively small group of donors financed lower-income economies, is giving way to a more fragmented, multipolar and transactional landscape.

 

The question is therefore no longer simply whether traditional aid can survive. It is whether this disruption can become the starting point for a development-finance model better suited to the world that is emerging. For developing economies, particularly in Africa, the adjustment will be difficult. Aid continues to finance essential health, food-security, humanitarian and social programs, especially in fragile economies. Abrupt cuts can quickly translate into lost services and greater hardship. The transition away from aid cannot become an excuse for abandoning vulnerable populations.

 

But rebuilding the old system is neither realistic nor desirable. Its credibility has been weakening for years as governments redirect development budgets toward security, migration and other foreign-policy priorities, while taxpayers in donor economies question spending abroad amid fiscal pressures at home. What appears to be an aid crisis is better understood as a structural shift in the political economy of development finance. That requires a different response. Instead of asking how lost aid can be replaced, developing economies should ask a more important question: How should development be financed when aid is no longer at the center of the system?

 

The answer begins at home.

 

Domestic resource mobilization must become the foundation of development finance. Better tax administration, broader tax bases, stronger institutions and deeper financial markets can mobilize resources for infrastructure, education, health and productive investment. This is not simply about finding money. Governments that depend more on domestic taxpayers and investors also have stronger incentives to build credible institutions, deliver public services and maintain economic stability.

 

External capital will remain essential, but its role must evolve. Private investment can complement public resources in infrastructure, manufacturing, technology and services. Attracting it requires predictable rules, functioning infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, skilled workers and institutions capable of enforcing contracts.

 

Trade is equally important. Economies dependent on raw commodity exports will struggle to generate the foreign exchange and productive employment required for sustained development. Greater emphasis must be placed on value addition, manufacturing and tradable services, including digital services and tourism.

 

Diasporas and regional integration offer additional opportunities. Lower-cost remittances and credible investment mechanisms can channel diaspora savings toward businesses and infrastructure. Deeper regional markets can create scale, strengthen supply chains and allow capital to circulate more efficiently.

 

International cooperation should not disappear. It should evolve.

 

In a multipolar world, developing economies have more potential partners but fewer unconditional benefactors. Governments should diversify their relationships and judge partnerships by whether they bring investment, technology, market access and productive capacity, not simply by how much financing they promise. International aid, meanwhile, should remain focused on humanitarian emergencies, fragile states and global public goods while increasingly helping mobilize other sources of finance.

 

That is the opportunity embedded in the current moment. Beyond aid does not mean beyond solidarity. It means moving from dependence to leverage, from transfers to investment, and from donor-driven priorities to locally financed development. The decline of the old aid system will be disruptive. But the better response is not to preserve it indefinitely. It is to build a financial architecture suited to the world that is emerging, one in which development depends less on the generosity of outsiders and more on the capacity of societies to mobilize their own resources, attract capital and shape their own economic future.

PUBLICATIONS

Post ODA Development Finance: Challenges and Prospects

 

Hung Q. Tran

 

Official Development Assistance (ODA) to developing countries has fallen in recent years to well below the UN target of 0.7% of developed countries’ gross national income. Global remittances have become the biggest inflow to poor countries, greater than ODA or foreign direct investment which has also declined. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tension between major powers, other countries including developing ones and development institutions have to do their parts in mobilizing development finance to assist low-income countries. The challenge in doing so remains formidable in the foreseeable future... Read more

 

Beyond Aid - A Wake-Up Call for Development Cooperation Tough but Timely

 

Len Ishmael

 

The era of relative stability grounded in post-Second World War idealism, and a global compact around the principle of supporting the most vulnerable, is coming to an abrupt close. In its place is hard-nosed realpolitik, raw power, and transactional politics. The current discordant, fractious epoch, despite the sense of foreboding and crises in some quarters, may yet create the space and conditions for much needed honest dialogue on the future of development cooperation. This dialogue should be based on principles of sovereignty, empowerment, equity, and inclusion. But this requires a political path forward and transformative leadership... Read more

 

From Financing to Investing for Development: The End of ODA as We Know It

 

Ferid Belhaj

 

The traditional model of Official Development Assistance (ODA) has not only entrenched financial dependence but also served as a tool for geopolitical influence, often prioritizing donor interests over genuine economic self-sufficiency in developing nations. The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) envisioned a shift towards private investment, but this strategy has largely failed. Capital flight, rising debt burdens, and systemic financial asymmetries have ensured that investment flows remain skewed towards middle-income markets, leaving the most vulnerable economies exposed. Initiatives like Billions to Trillions have been more rhetorical than transformative, as private capital remains risk-averse in politically unstable regions... Read more

 

Securing Africa’s Future: Ring-Fencing Development Financing in an Era of Security-Focused Economic Policy

 

Hinh T. Dinh, Laura Rubidge

 

Africa is facing mutually reinforcing challenges, including trade fragmentation, security focused economic policies, fiscal limitations and technological disruption, which have created a development landscape of unprecedented complexity and constraint. At the same time, there is a systematic mismatch between Africa’s long-term development needs and the short-term fiscal and political pressures that dominate policymaking. This policy brief argues that ring-fencing development expenditures is a potential pathway to reconciling this mismatch. Although there are many challenges spanning the technical, political and institutional domains, this policy brief outlines several policy mechanisms to institutionalise ring-fencing of development financing that have proven to be effective in a number of countries... Read more

 

A Turning Point in Aid: Toward What End?

 

Lucia Ragazzi

 

This Chapter of the Annual Trends Report : Beyond Global Polarization: New Cooperation Wanted argues that 2025 marks a turning point in global development aid, as the United States and other major donors reduce funding and increasingly link aid to national and geopolitical interests. These cuts particularly threaten aid-dependent regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and could worsen humanitarian crises. However, the crisis also reveals the weaknesses of long-term dependence on foreign assistance. Ragazzi sees this moment as an opportunity to rethink development cooperation by focusing more on investment, trade, remittances, productivity, and mutual economic benefits. The challenge is to build a more sustainable and equal development model while continuing to protect vulnerable populations... Read more

WEBINAR

OECD Multilateral Development Finance Week 2026 | Rethinking Development Finance: African Agency and the Future of Multilateral Development Co-operation after ODA Retrenchment

 

As part of the OECD Multilateral Development Finance Week 2026 (MDF Week), the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) organized a webinar that contributed to ongoing reflections on the future of development finance and the evolving role of African countries in shaping more sustainable and equitable development partnerships.

 

As of mid-2026, the global development finance landscape was undergoing a profound structural shift. A historic decline in traditional Official Development Assistance (ODA) driven by fiscal consolidation and shifting domestic priorities among major Development Assistance Committee (DAC) donors had exposed the vulnerabilities of a development model reliant on external aid. This retrenchment was creating substantial financing gaps in critical areas such as public health, climate adaptation, and infrastructure across Sub-Saharan Africa.

 

However, this crisis of traditional aid also presented a pivotal opportunity for African nations to redefine their development sovereignty. The session brought together African policymakers, global development finance leaders, and civil society experts to explore how the continent could transition from a donor-recipient paradigm toward a model anchored in self-reliance, strategic autonomy, and local agency... Watch

 

AFRICAFE

Aid and Development in Africa

 

Andy Summer, Stephen Klingebiel 

 

This episode of AfriCAFÉ examines how Africa’s development aid landscape is shifting amid major cuts by traditional donors and changing global priorities. Through a discussion with Stephen Klingebiel and Andrew Sumner, it questions whether aid has truly driven development or fostered dependency. The episode highlights the limits of aid-based models and explores lessons from Asia, pointing toward a future centered on investment, concessional finance, and strategic partnerships rather than grants alone... Watch

 

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