For many years, climate discourse has been shaped by a strong sense of idealism: ambitious pledges, long-term targets, and a shared moral imperative to address climate change. Governments and institutions rallied around net-zero commitments, decarbonization pathways, and promises of financial support for mitigation and adaptation. As 2025–2026 unfolds, however, the gap between aspiration and implementation has become more visible. While the energy transition is technologically viable in many settings, it continues to face political, institutional, and fiscal constraints. Fossil fuels remain deeply embedded in global energy systems, geopolitical tensions complicate cooperation, and budgetary pressures weigh heavily on governments, particularly in emerging and developing economies.

 

COP30 in Belém offered a clear illustration of this evolving reality. Global ambition remains present in official discourse, yet institutional capacity and fiscal space increasingly shape what can be delivered in practice. Climate shocks are no longer viewed solely as future risks; they are already exposing structural limits in state capacity. Heatwaves, floods, and droughts strain labor markets, food systems, public investment, and urban governance. In this context, economic constraints, rising debt, limited fiscal flexibility, and financial fragmentation, often determine the scope of climate action more than international commitments alone. Adaptation and mitigation, as COP30 highlighted, are inseparable from broader questions of governance.

 

One of the central messages emerging from COP30 is that resilience depends heavily on institutional strength. States that are able to coordinate policies across sectors, mobilize resources, enforce regulations, and sustain social cohesion are better positioned to adapt to climate pressures. Others may face increasing vulnerability and dependence. Rather than signaling a failure of ambition, COP30 revealed the growing need to align global objectives with domestic institutional realities. Finance, technology, and international norms matter most when countries have the capacity to absorb, manage, and implement them effectively.

 

For Africa and the wider Global South, these dynamics carry important implications. Adaptation is not only a technical or financial challenge; it is also deeply governance-intensive. Effective water management, urban planning, disaster preparedness, and climate-sensitive fiscal policies rely on capable institutions, clear legal frameworks, and credible public administration. In many African countries, adaptation challenges reflect not only resource constraints but also issues of administrative coordination and policy coherence. Likewise, attracting private investment increasingly depends on predictable regulatory environments, transparent public finance, and institutional stability rather than symbolic commitments alone.

 

The experience of 2025–2026 suggests a gradual shift from climate idealism toward a more institutional form of realism. Ambition and inspiration remain essential, but the effectiveness of climate action will increasingly depend on governance capacity, institutional legitimacy, and implementation strength. COP30 in Belém underscored that in a complex and fragmented global climate landscape, outcomes are shaped less by the boldness of pledges than by the ability of states to act. For vulnerable countries, strengthening institutions is not merely a complementary objective, it is a central condition for resilience, autonomy, and sustained climate action.

PUBLICATIONS

What 2025-2026 Tells Us About the Future of Global Energy

 

Rim Berahab

 

This policy brief examines what the 2025–2026 period reveals about the future of global energy risk and the energy transition. After the shocks of 2021–2023, 2025 brought broad price easing: oil and coal prices declined as supply growth outpaced demand, and the World Bank projects further declines in the global energy price index in 2026, offering short-term relief for energy-importing economies... Read more

 

The Baku To Belem Roadmap To $1.3 Trillion: The New South Should Take The Lead

 

Hafez Ghanem

 

Following developing countries’ dissatisfaction with the $300 billion New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) agreed at COP29 in Baku in 2024, the COP29 and COP30 presidencies committed to a roadmap to mobilize the $1.3 trillion in external climate finance needed by developing countries. Presented on November 5, 2025, ahead of COP30 in Belém, the roadmap delivers a clear message: the resources exist, the need is evident, and what is required now is the resolve to act... Read more

 

(FR) The Loss and Damage Fund: Specificities and Conditions for Success

 

Larabi Jaïdi, Rim Berahab, Sabrine Emran

 

This Policy Paper examines the political, economic, and operational challenges of the Loss and Damage Fund, established to address the irreversible climate impacts on the most vulnerable countries. It first clarifies the concept of loss and damage, encompassing both economic and non-economic effects, and highlights attribution challenges arising from the overlap between climate shocks and structural vulnerabilities. The paper then outlines key political economy tensions: uncertainty over contributors, moral hazard risks, interaction with existing instruments, and difficulties in defining eligibility criteria. It emphasizes the significant financing gap and the need for innovative mechanisms to ensure predictable resources... Read more

 

Climate Mitigation Is Under Attack: Africa Must Prioritize Adaptation

 

Hafez Ghanem

 

Africa today has only one real climate priority: adaptation. Africa should still push the rich countries of the Global North to cut emissions. But Africa should not have any illusions. Past mitigation efforts have had some positive effects but have not been sufficient to stay on track with the targets of the Paris Agreement. There is no reason to believe that future efforts will fare any better. Political developments in the United States and Europe do not augur well for global mitigation efforts. Emissions will most likely remain stable or even increase a little, which means that temperatures will probably continue to rise to nearly 3 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by the end of the century. Africa must be prepared for this eventuality. It would be irresponsible not to start preparing now for the worst-case climate scenario... Read more

 

 

OP-ED

A Realist Reading of COP30 in Belém

 

Ferid Belhaj

 

COP30 in Belém revealed that climate ambition alone cannot overcome the hard limits imposed by weak institutions and fiscal constraints. Climate shocks now act as structural forces, amplifying state fragility and intertwining with macroeconomic governance. True resilience depends on institutional capacity, legitimacy, and centralized governance, not pledges or finance alone. In this realist phase, stronger states will adapt and retain autonomy, while weaker ones face growing vulnerability and dependency... Read more

 

Local Participation in Morocco’s Climate Journey

 

Abdessalam Saad Jaldi, Sabrine Emran

 

Morocco has built a strong legal and institutional framework for climate governance, enshrining the right to a healthy environment and promoting local participation in decision-making. Progress in decentralization, renewable energy, and regional climate planning demonstrates tangible outcomes, from flood protection to forest regeneration. Yet, persistent challenges, limited institutional capacity, resource constraints, and evolving participatory mechanisms, hinder full implementation. Strengthening local governance, citizen engagement, and technical expertise is essential to turn constitutional environmental rights into actionable, resilient climate action... Read more

 

SPECIAL BROADCASTS

Breaking Free from Fossil Fuels

 

The episode explores the global push to move beyond fossil fuels amid climate urgency, geopolitical tensions, and energy security shocks. It highlights how the energy transition is advancing unevenly, with advanced economies decarbonizing faster than many Global South countries constrained by financing and development needs. Renewables, green hydrogen, electrification, and efficiency emerge as key pillars of this shift. Ultimately, the transition is framed as a geopolitical, industrial, and social transformation reshaping global competitiveness and North–South power relations... Watch

 

 

Embracing the AI-Climate Agriculture Nexus

 

Rising temperatures, water scarcity, and extreme weather are straining food systems and rural livelihoods like never before. At the same time, technologies such as artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and climate analytics are creating new ways to boost productivity, optimize resources, and reduce emissions. But can these tools be scaled effectively to build truly resilient and sustainable agricultural systems?... Watch

 

 

Financing the Green Future: How Emerging Economies Can Lead the Climate Transition

 

Emerging economies face a critical challenge: how to sustain growth while responding to climate change. In this episode, we explore the role of green finance, from climate bonds and sustainable infrastructure to blended finance, in supporting decarbonization, job creation, and climate-resilient development. Joining us is Mehran Haghirian, Director of Research & Programmes at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation and an Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leader, for a timely discussion on how emerging economies can mobilize capital, align policies, and position themselves as leaders in the global climate agenda... Watch

 

PODCASTS

The Backlash Against Environnementalism in the European Union

 

This episode examines the apparent backlash against the European Green Deal and questions whether Europe is witnessing a true reversal of its environmental ambitions. Dominique Bocquet argues that while momentum has slowed, this does not amount to a full U-turn, but rather a period of political and social adjustment. He highlights growing trade-offs between environmental goals, economic constraints, and security concerns, calling for more realistic and socially acceptable pathways to sustainability... Listen

 

Climate Leadership in a Volatile World: Youth, Innovation, and the Future of Energy

 

This episode examines youth-led climate leadership in the context of economic, political, and energy volatility. The discussion highlights how young leaders across Africa are driving climate and energy solutions through capacity building, policy engagement, and grassroots innovation, particularly in areas such as sustainable cooling and clean cooking. It underscores the need for locally grounded transition models, inclusive governance frameworks, and greater recognition of youth as co-creators of Africa’s energy future rather than mere beneficiaries... Listen

 

Decarbonization Without Exclusion: How to Ensure a Fair and Just Energy

 

In this Atlantic Dialogues episode of the Policy Center for the New South podcast, Dr. Wessam Elbeih discusses with Helmut Sorge how to advance decarbonization while keeping the energy transition fair for the Global South. The conversation explores equity and historical responsibility, carbon pricing and emerging mechanisms like the EU’s CBAM, and ways to expand energy access without locking in high emissions... Listen

 

ATLANTIC DIALOGUES SESSIONS

Decarbonisation Futures: One Goal, Many Journeys

 

As global decarbonization accelerates, the transition is unfolding along differentiated national pathways shaped by economic conditions, energy security, governance capacity, and technological readiness. This has created a multi-speed transition with diverging regional trajectories. This session examines how these differences are reshaping the global climate landscape, their implications for international coordination and the credibility of long-term commitments, and the institutional mechanisms needed to sustain progress amid political uncertainty, financing gaps, and climate shocks, while keeping diverse pathways aligned with a shared global objective... Watch

 

Securing Water and Food for a Sustainable Africa

 

This session explore how African countries can embed sustainability, resilience, and equity into their water and food systems, drawing on African experiences. It highlights the role of science, technology, and innovation in strengthening adaptation, while also addressing the political and institutional decisions that shape long-term transformation. The discussion also considers how to avoid further fragmentation and ensure inclusive access to vital resources in a rapidly changing climate... Watch

 

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