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Morocco’s political landscape is being shaped simultaneously from within and beyond its borders. The 2026 legislative elections offer one lens through which to read this evolution: not simply as a competition for seats, but as a test of how political preferences are translated into representation, how electoral rules structure competition, and how geography continues to shape partisan support.

 

The results point to a system in which fragmentation is not incidental. Constituency size, the electoral quotient and territorial voting patterns all influence the balance between pluralism and governability. Rural and urban Morocco do not vote in the same way, nor do they participate at the same levels. These differences raise broader questions about political accountability, the visibility of ideological choices and the capacity of electoral outcomes to reflect the preferences of an increasingly differentiated electorate.

 

Yet Morocco’s political outlook cannot be understood through domestic politics alone. Its strategic environment is also being reshaped by the evolution of the Sahara issue, where historical narratives, international law, diplomatic alignments and the United Nations process increasingly intersect.

 

The studies featured in this edition approach that question from different points in time. Declassified American documents revisit the calculations surrounding the Green March and the diplomatic contest that followed it. Legal analyses reconsider arguments formed five decades ago in light of changes in international law. More recent work examines the UN Secretary-General’s 2026 report and the growing place of the Autonomy Initiative in discussions over a possible political settlement.

 

Read together, these contributions reveal a common thread. Political outcomes, whether electoral or geopolitical, are rarely determined by a single moment. They emerge from institutional rules, territorial realities, historical choices and strategies pursued over time. In Morocco’s case, understanding the present therefore requires looking both at the mechanisms through which political representation is produced at home and at the long strategic sequences through which the country has sought to define its position abroad.

 

This edition of our newsletter brings these two dimensions together, offering a broader reading of Morocco’s political and strategic trajectory at a moment when both domestic representation and the regional order surrounding the country are undergoing important shifts.

MOROCCO’S 2026 LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

(FR) From Mobilization to Representation: Morocco’s Electoral Geographies in 2026

 

Driss Alaoui Belghiti

 

The Policy Paper analyzes Morocco’s 2026 legislative elections through the interplay between voter participation, party territorial bases, and the translation of votes into seats. It highlights sharp geographic disparities in turnout, including low participation in several major urban constituencies and much higher levels in the southern provinces. The study also identifies distinct party geographies, with PAM enjoying broad territorial reach, RNI performing more strongly in less urbanized areas, and PJD retaining a more metropolitan base. It shows that electoral fragmentation is closely linked to constituency size and that local rankings strongly affect the conversion of electoral support into parliamentary representation. Overall, the paper argues that understanding the 2026 results requires combining the geography of political support with the effects of electoral rules... Read more 

(AR) Tuesday Talk: Morocco’s 2026 Legislative Elections

 

Driss Alaoui Belghiti

 

This episode of Mardis du PCNS examines Morocco’s 2026 legislative elections as a key moment in the country’s electoral and institutional trajectory. It looks at the specific features of the legislative vote, the composition of the electorate, candidates and competing lists, as well as women’s representation. The discussion also explores the rules governing the electoral process, particularly the electoral quotient and the mechanisms for counting votes and allocating seats. It further considers citizens’ political and electoral awareness and the changes in electoral practices observed over previous elections. Finally, the episode reflects on what these developments reveal about the evolution of Morocco’s democratic experience... Watch

 

Fragmentation by Design? Reading Morocco’s 2026 Election Beyond the Results

 

Chaimae Bourjij

 

The op-ed examines Morocco’s 2026 legislative elections beyond the distribution of seats, focusing on how electoral rules shape political representation and accountability. It argues that the current framework structurally encourages parliamentary fragmentation, limiting the ability of any single party to secure a clear majority. The analysis also highlights territorial voting patterns, contrasting the rural strength of PAM and RNI with the PJD’s predominantly urban support. Against a backdrop of lower turnout, it questions how effectively voter preferences are translated into political representation. The article ultimately asks whether fragmentation strengthens pluralism or instead blurs ideological choices and weakens accountability... Read more 

 

THE SAHARA: DIPLOMACY, LAW AND STRATEGIC CONTINUITY

Western Sahara: Questioning the Theory of Moroccan Infringement

 

 

Dominique Bocquet with Sâ Benjamin Traoré

 

In 1975, Morocco claimed sovereignty over this vast desert territory – which had previously been a Spanish colony – as it considered this territory had previously belonged to her. This view is contested by the Polisario Front, an independence movement supported by Algeria. The international community has adopted an ambivalent attitude, accepting the idea that Morocco has violated international law, while at the same time becoming increasingly conciliatory towards Morocco, which exercises de facto sovereignty over the aforementioned regions... Read more

The UN Secretary-General’s 2026 Report on the Sahara: Towards an Autonomy-Based Settlement

 

Mohammed Loulichki

 

The paper examines the UN Secretary-General’s 2026 report on the Sahara and the renewed political process surrounding the dispute. It highlights the growing centrality of Morocco’s Autonomy Initiative in substantive discussions involving Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, and the Polisario Front, facilitated by the United States and the United Nations. The analysis identifies four emerging dimensions: autonomy, a possible transitional framework, institutional and international guarantees, and the gradual adaptation of MINURSO’s mandate. It also underlines unresolved issues concerning sovereignty, self-determination, consultation of the populations, and border-related questions... Read more

 

The Green March in Henry Kissinger's Declassified Documents

 

Abdallah Saaf

 

The paper revisits the Green March through Henry Kissinger’s declassified documents, showing how the 1975 event combined popular mobilization, diplomatic maneuvering and strategic calculation. It highlights Washington’s concern that the initiative could trigger a military confrontation involving Morocco, Algeria and Spain, despite King Hassan II’s insistence on its peaceful character. The documents also reveal Kissinger’s repeated attempts to persuade the King to abandon the March, warnings that did not alter Morocco’s course. Abdallah Saaf argues that the Green March was not an improvised move but a pragmatic strategy shaped by a favorable international and regional context. Fifty years later, it remains a central episode in Morocco’s national narrative and an important field for further historical research... Read more

 

The Sahara as Revealed in Documents Declassified by the U.S. Government

 

Abdallah Saaf

 

The paper examines the Sahara issue through U.S. documents declassified from the Carter administration, focusing on the decisive period between 1977 and 1980. It highlights Morocco’s diplomatic and security challenges amid guerrilla warfare, regional instability, and growing Soviet and Cuban influence in Africa. The documents reveal the evolution of Washington’s initially neutral position and Morocco’s sustained efforts to secure greater political and military support from the United States. They also shed light on King Hassan II’s strategy and his dissatisfaction with what he viewed as insufficient Western backing for Morocco. Overall, Abdallah Saaf portrays Morocco’s approach to the Sahara as one built over time on “patience,” “persistence,” and “skill.”... Read more

 

Lessons from the 50-Year Sahara Issue: Polisario and the Evolution of International Law

 

Matsumoto Shoji

 

The paper examines how developments in international law over the past 50 years affect the legal dimensions of the Sahara issue. It focuses in particular on the expanded understanding of racial discrimination and the principle that wrongful acts committed by non-state armed groups may be attributable to a supporting state. Matsumoto Shoji applies these developments to the referendum advocated by Polisario and to the relationship between Algeria and Polisario. The analysis argues that contemporary legal standards differ significantly from those prevailing in 1975 and should be taken into account in assessing current proposals and claims. More broadly, the paper calls for the Sahara issue to be reassessed in light of the evolution of international legal norms... Read more

 

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