Last week, a high-profile U.S. operation in Venezuela drew significant international attention, reopening debates about sovereignty, regional stability, and the evolving balance of power in the Western Hemisphere. U.S. authorities have described the action as a response to security and legal concerns, while reactions from other actors have reflected broader uncertainties surrounding the use of force, international law, and crisis management in a polarized global environment.
Beyond the immediate bilateral dimension, developments in Caracas highlight the complexity of contemporary international relations, where domestic political dynamics, regional security considerations, and global strategic competition increasingly intersect. Venezuela’s prolonged political and economic crisis has long involved a wide range of external stakeholders, making it a focal point for competing interpretations of legitimacy, responsibility, and international engagement.
The episode also underscores the continued strategic relevance of Latin America, particularly in relation to issues such as migration, transnational crime, energy markets, and geopolitical influence. While the region has often been viewed as secondary in global strategic calculations, evolving security and economic pressures have brought it more prominently into international discussions, especially as global rivalries extend into the Western Hemisphere.
At the global level, the situation reflects a wider trend toward selective engagement and the use of targeted measures to address perceived risks or disruptions. States increasingly rely on combinations of diplomatic pressure, economic instruments, and military actions to pursue their objectives, often outside comprehensive multilateral frameworks. This trend is not unique to the United States but is observable across multiple actors and regions.
At the same time, such actions raise enduring questions about international norms, institutional processes, and the management of escalation. Divergent interpretations of legality and legitimacy, combined with fragmented multilateral coordination, contribute to uncertainty for regional actors and international partners alike.
The developments in Venezuela illustrate the challenges facing the international system in responding to protracted crises and highlight how U.S. foreign policy is shaping those responses. Washington’s approach, evolving from sanctions and diplomatic pressure to a more transactional approach, including targeted operations and strategic engagement with Venezuela’s energy sector, reflects the difficulty of balancing security imperatives, legal considerations, and political realities in an environment marked by strategic competition and shifting norms of global governance.
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The United States and Venezuela: Beyond the Bilateral Dimension
Nizar Messari
Recent developments between the United States and Venezuela are unfolding against a backdrop of growing U.S. assertiveness in the Western Hemisphere. This paper goes beyond a narrow bilateral reading to situate the standoff within broader geopolitical, security, and strategic dynamics. It examines whether Venezuela is an objective or part of a wider regional strategy, as suggested by evolving U.S. doctrine. By outlining possible scenarios, it clarifies what is at stake for the region amid an uncertain global order... Read more
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Venezuela After the Elections: A Path of Radicalization With No Return?
Nizar Messari
The aftermath of Venezuela’s July 2024 presidential election has deepened political uncertainty rather than resolving it. Competing claims of victory have intensified domestic divisions while drawing in regional and global actors along increasingly polarized lines. This paper examines how electoral ambiguity has pushed Venezuela toward a path of heightened radicalization, both internally and internationally. It explores the risks ahead and the narrow windows that remain for de-escalation and political mediation... Read more
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Trump And Latin America: Where Are They Heading?
Nizar Messari
Latin America was largely absent from Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign, leading many to expect continuity through neglect. Yet since his re-election, the region has unexpectedly moved to the forefront of U.S. foreign policy. This paper examines the shift, highlighting new priorities such as migration and the Panama Canal, alongside the relative downgrading of the Venezuelan crisis. It offers a clear lens for understanding the evolving logic of Trump’s engagement with Latin America... Read more
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The Trump Administration and Venezuela
Ian O. Lesser
This episode explores the Trump administration’s confrontational stance toward Venezuela, including sanctions and military posturing and evaluates their effectiveness in undermining Maduro’s regime. It examines the economic and social fallout in Venezuela, global leaders’ responses, and whether Trump’s approach reflects a broader foreign policy trend, with implications for future U.S. actions... Listen
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U.S GLOBAL FOREIGN POLICY TODAY
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Far From Disengagement: The U.S. and the Mediterranean Today
Ian O. Lesser
The return of Donald Trump to the White House was widely expected to signal U.S. disengagement from the Mediterranean. Instead, recent developments have revealed sustained and, in some areas, intensified American activism across southern Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. This paper examines how U.S. involvement is evolving in style, priorities, and geography rather than disappearing. It offers a broader reading of why the Mediterranean continues to matter in an era of shifting global competition and connectivity... Read more
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(FR) Trump's Plan for Peace in the Middle East
Abdelhak Bassou
The endorsement of a new U.S. peace plan for Gaza by the UN Security Council marks a turning point in Washington’s Middle East diplomacy. This paper traces how an initially transactional vision has evolved into a more complex and uncertain regional architecture, shaped by war, shifting power balances, and political constraints. It examines continuity and rupture in the Trump administration’s approach, moving from prosperity-led peace to a strategy centered on security. The analysis sheds light on what this transformation means for the future of regional stability... Read more
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The Trump Administration One Year On: What Policy Toward the South?
Ian O. Lesser
One year into Trump’s second term, the U.S. has remained surprisingly active in the Global South, from Latin America and the Caribbean to Africa. Washington’s approach blends unilateralism, economic pressure, and selective security engagement, while downplaying multilateralism and democracy promotion. Trade disputes, migration enforcement, and resource-focused policies illustrate this transactional style. Domestic politics and ideological priorities continue to shape relations across the South... Read more
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Trump and Xi: The Chessboard of a New World Order
Marcus Vinicius de Freitas
This analysis explores the emerging multipolar world and the contrasting strategies of the U.S. and China. Trump favors quick, assertive actions, while Xi emphasizes patience, strategic influence, and economic leverage. China’s rise illustrates how power can advance through restraint rather than confrontation. The piece examines what this shift means for Europe, Latin America, and Africa in navigating a complex global order... Read more
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INSIGHTS FROM ATLANTIC DIALOGUES
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U.S. Migration Policies (in Spanish)
In this episode, we host Paula Disla, Vice Minister for International Relations at the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Technology of the Dominican Republic, to discuss how U.S. migration policy shapes global migration flows and regional stability. We examine the impact of border management, visa programs, and asylum regulations on labor markets, remittances, and social dynamics across Latin America and Africa, as well as their links to development, international cooperation, and security... Watch
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Latin America Amid Global Shifts
This conversation explores how Latin America is navigating a rapidly shifting global landscape, from U.S.–China trade tensions and nearshoring opportunities in Mexico and Central America, to resource-rich countries debating industrialization beyond raw material exports. It examines climate diplomacy in Brazil and Colombia, migration pressures, inflation, fiscal reforms, and efforts to strengthen regional trade and reduce dollar dependency. Panelists discuss how governments, businesses, and regional institutions respond to fragmented supply chains, decarbonization demands, and competition for investment, asking whether the moment can redefine Latin America’s role in the global order... Watch
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America First, Negotiation Room for Others?
This panel examines the “America First” policy and its far-reaching impact on global affairs. From reshaping trade, alliances, and development assistance to influencing migration, climate negotiations, and AI governance, the policy has challenged traditional diplomatic norms and prompted countries worldwide to rethink engagement with the United States. Panelists explore both the disruptions caused and the strategic opportunities it created, highlighting how this approach continues to reshape global relations and international cooperation... Watch
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