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For much of the past eighty years, global governance rested on a relatively simple promise: power would be constrained by rules, international institutions would provide a framework for cooperation, and even states with limited military or economic weight would receive some protection through law and multilateralism. The post-1945 order was never equal, but it created a measure of predictability in international affairs.

 

Today, that predictability is disappearing. The challenge extends beyond institutional paralysis or deteriorating relations among major powers. The architecture of international cooperation itself is changing. The United Nations faces expanding responsibilities but limited political capacity; great powers engage selectively with international institutions; new coalitions are emerging; middle powers are becoming more assertive; and countries of the New South increasingly demand not simply representation, but a role in defining the rules themselves.

 

A central feature of this transformation is the return of power politics. Strategic rivalry, transactional diplomacy and the pursuit of national autonomy increasingly coexist with the universalist language of multilateralism. At the same time, cooperation is becoming more modular. Rather than expecting nearly two hundred states to agree on every major issue, governments increasingly assemble coalitions around particular interests and issues. This emerging “flexi-lateralism” relies on adaptable arrangements and selective partnerships capable of operating when universal consensus is difficult to reach, ideally while remaining anchored in broader international norms.

 

The emerging order may therefore consist of overlapping institutions and coalitions: the United Nations, G20, BRICS+, regional organizations, development banks, private actors and issue-specific groupings. Such flexibility can enable action when universal institutions are blocked and create greater space for states historically treated as “rule-takers’’ rather than ‘’rule-makers’’.

 

Middle powers illustrate this shift. Countries such as Brazil, South Africa, Türkiye and South Korea increasingly operate across diplomatic arenas rather than attaching themselves permanently to one geopolitical camp. Similarly, the growing agency of the New South should not be understood simply as resistance to the West. Many emerging countries seek the ability to help design the institutional architecture itself.

 

Yet fragmentation carries serious risks. A world of flexible coalitions may be more representative, but it can also become more hierarchical. When rules weaken, power becomes more decisive, and transactional diplomacy favors states with large markets, strong militaries, strategic resources or technological capabilities. For smaller and more vulnerable states, international law therefore remains essential. The old order never guaranteed equality, but it offered procedural protection. Replacing rules with bargaining among powerful states could leave weaker countries facing dramatically unequal leverage.

 

This is the central paradox of the emerging international system: the existing order requires reform because it no longer adequately reflects twenty-first-century distributions of power or political expectations, yet dismantling its rules and institutions without credible alternatives risks producing an order that is more arbitrary rather than more democratic. Reform must therefore be selective, pragmatic, and grounded in institutional realities. International organizations cannot indefinitely expand their mandates without the political support, resources, and institutional capacity required to fulfil them. Ultimately, their credibility will depend less on the breadth of the issues they aspire to govern than on their ability to produce meaningful and tangible results.

 

The emerging international order is likely to be more plural and decentralized, combining universal institutions with regional organizations, coalitions of middle powers, and flexible, issue-based partnerships. The challenge of remaking global governance is not to recreate the systems of 1945 or the 1990s, but to preserve the core multilateral principle that international politics should be governed by more than the exercise of raw power. This will require adapting institutions to the realities of a multipolar world, in which influence, responsibility, and the capacity to shape global outcomes are more widely distributed.

PUBLICATIONS

The Secretary-General of Everything and the United Nations of Nothing

 

Ferid Belhaj

 

The next Secretary-General should begin with an act of institutional rebellion: refuse to become the Secretary-General of everything. Over three decades the office's political and administrative reach has spread across sustainable development, climate, health, migration, digital governance, financing, gender, food systems, and a still-growing list of global priorities. These issues are not unimportant; the trouble is that institutional ambition has simply outrun institutional capability. Call it mission inflation: more agendas, more coordination mechanisms, more summits and declarations, and a correspondingly diffuse sense of who is responsible for what... Read more

 

Shaping a New World? Middle Powers and Global Governance

 

Alberto Tagliapietra, Guilherme Casarões

 

Global governance is shifting amid growing polarization, weakened multilateral institutions, and more flexible frameworks. As great powers increasingly favor unilateral or transactional approaches, middle powers are gaining influence. Countries such as Brazil, South Africa, Türkiye, Poland, and South Korea use regional leadership, diplomatic networks, and minilateral forums such as the G20 and BRICS+ to navigate a fragmented global order. However, differing priorities, capabilities, and limited leverage constrain their ability to drive innovation. Middle powers will be central to shaping the emerging international order, but their capacity to overcome these limitations remains uncertain... Read more

 

The New Flexi-Lateralism: International Cooperation in an Era of Raw Power Politics

 

Len Ishmael, Stephan Klingebiel, Andy Sumner

 

Escalatory attacks on multilateral rules and institutions in this era of raw power politics have plunged international politics into uncharted territory. Traditional alliances have been fractured and new partnerships between unlikely bedfellows are emerging. No longer in transition, the post-World War II world order is in rupture. This paper examines international cooperation under these conditions and argues that a new "flexi-lateralism" is taking shape as a pragmatic response to changing times. We define the new flexi-lateralism as international cooperation expressed through adaptable modular tools and selective coalitions, anchored in UN norms, that proceeds even when universal commitments are openly contested and attacked... Read more

 

Évian 2026: The G7’s Flexible Reset – AI, Middle Powers, and Diplomacy Beyond the Summit Table

 

Bilal Mahli

 

We take the 2026 G7 Summit in Évian-les-Bains as a case study for understanding how a leading existing multilateral organisation adapts to a more fragmented, technologically inflected, and multipolar world. We argue that the significance of Évian lies less in the summit agreements themselves than in what the summit reveals: a qualitative shift in governance away from exclusive summit diplomacy and towards more selective coalition-building, broader engagement with non-state actors, and the inclusion of strategically positioned middle powers... Read more

 

The Silent Majority of the New South: Small States, Davos 2026, and the Last Line of International Law

 

Ferid Belhaj, Otaviano Canuto

 

This article examines the quiet but profound implications of the erosion of U.S.-led hegemony for small and vulnerable states of the New South. While the post-1945 international order was never egalitarian, it offered predictability: power was organized through law, and sovereignty for weaker states rested less on justice than on procedural stability. Davos 2026 marked a turning point in the public acknowledgment of that system’s unraveling. Statements by leading Western figures revealed not a revolt against American power, but a growing recognition that the United States is increasingly retreating from the obligations that once distinguished hegemony from dominance. As rules give way to discretion, and institutions to transactional bargaining, the capacity of states to navigate global disorder is becoming sharply unequal... Read more

 

Global South Agency: From Victimhood to Systemic Architecture

 

Marcus Vinicius de Freitas

 

For much of the post-war period, the Global South was framed as an object of history, defined by dependency, constrained by structural asymmetries, and confined to the margins of global decision-making. That narrative, once empirically grounded, is now no longer adequate. A profound yet uneven transformation is underway. The Global South is no longer only reacting; it is increasingly shaping rules, institutions, and narratives. This Policy Brief argues that the Global South is thus transitioning from victimhood to agency, and potentially from agency toward systemic authorship. However, authorship remains an aspiration, not an achievement. The transition is real but contested, reversible in parts, and complicated by deep internal divisions. To move beyond intuitive claims, the brief proposes a novel operational tool, the Global South Agency Index (GSAI). This would be a composite annual measure of Southern influence over binding international rules... Read more

 

ANNUAL TRENDS REPORTS

1st Edition: The Rise of Global South: New Consensus Wanted

 

The Rise of Global South: New Consensus Wanted explores the growing influence of the Global South and its calls for a more balanced international order. Bringing together experts from the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS), the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), and the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), the report examines shifting geopolitical dynamics, the expansion of BRICS, and the Global South’s evolving role in shaping global governance.

 

2nd Edition: Global Dynamics in a Year of Domestic Contestations and Political Shifts

 

Against the backdrop of a historic election year, the 2nd Annual Trends Report explores how domestic political shifts are reshaping international cooperation, trade, climate action, and multilateral governance. Bringing together experts from the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS), the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), and the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), the report examines the evolving role of theGlobal South and the expanded BRICS in an increasingly fragmented world.

 

3rd Edition: Beyond Global Polarization: New Cooperation Wanted

 

Beyond Global Polarization: New Cooperation Wanted examines a global landscape increasingly shaped by great power competition, protracted conflicts, economic nationalism, and growing mistrust. Bringing together experts from the Policy Center for the New South (PCNS), the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), and the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), the report explores the shift beyond the post-Cold War order and the growing need to rethink international cooperation and institutional reform.

OP-EDS

The United Nations and Social Justice: A Noble Mission, A Flawed System

 

Ferid Belhaj

 

The United Nations was built on a promise: to create a world in which justice, equality, and human dignity prevail. Arising from the ashes of the Second World War, the UN’s charter is filled with lofty ideals social progress, human rights, and “better standards of life in larger freedom.” Decades later, the rhetoric remains intact, but the reality tells a different story. The UN has played a critical role in shaping global conversations around poverty, human rights, and inequality, but the question remains: is it truly delivering on social justice, or has it morphed into a bureaucratic machine that manages rather than challenges global inequities?... Read more

 

Hegemonic Architecture: Strategic Dominance in the Twenty-First Century

 

Marcus Vinicius de Freitas

 

The op-ed introduces “hegemonic architecture” as a framework for understanding the resilience of U.S. global influence beyond traditional measures such as GDP, trade, or military power. It argues that modern hegemony rests on the ability to shape the institutions, financial systems, technologies, standards, and networks through which global economic activity circulates. While the U.S. remains at the center of this architecture, China is increasingly developing alternative systems and expanding its role in international standard-setting. The article suggests that twenty-first-century great-power competition will increasingly revolve around architectural dominance, potentially leading to several overlapping global architectures... Read more

 

PODCAST

The Future of Multilateralism in a Fragmented World

 

Helmut Sorge, Mark Malloch-Brown

 

In this episode of the Policy Center for the New South podcast, Mark Malloch-Brown explores the crisis of multilateralism, emphasizing the Global South’s growing role in reshaping institutions through country-led development and mini-lateral coalitions. He argues for a more democratic, adaptive UN to address fragmentation and global challenges like climate and equity... Listen

 

Africa in Global Negotiations: From the UN to Emerging Multipolar Arenas

 

Maged Abdelaziz, Bilal Mahli

 

In this episode of the Policy Center for the New South podcast, Ambassador Maged Abdelaziz examines the opportunities and constraints shaping Africa’s influence in global negotiations. He reflects on the stalled reform of the UN Security Council, the centrality of the veto issue, and the importance of African unity. Against a backdrop of a weakened multilateral system, he highlights the growing relevance of alternative forums such as the G20 and BRICS+, as well as regional organizations like the African Union, in advancing Africa’s priorities... Listen

 

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