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The Sahel remains one of the most closely watched regions in the world. Headlines often reduce it to instability: military coups, jihadist violence, and humanitarian crises dominate narratives. Yet such a lens overlooks deeper structural shifts, quietly reshaping the region’s trajectory. Beyond conflict, the Sahel is at a strategic crossroads where sovereignty ambitions, infrastructure connectivity, and economic integration are becoming central levers for regional transformation.

 

Countries of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES): Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are asserting sovereignty in ways that extend beyond rhetoric. Their goal is to reduce external dependence and reclaim political and economic autonomy. But sovereignty is inseparable from capacity: persistent jihadist threats, fragmented territories, weak governance, and limited structural transformation challenge the realization of these ambitions. Effective security consolidation, economic restructuring, and credible regional institutions are no longer optional, they are prerequisites for stable autonomy.

 

Logistics and connectivity emerge as central concerns. The Sahel’s economies remain largely landlocked, dependent on a few critical corridors whose disruption can ripple across the region. The 2025 fuel blockade by Jama’t Nusrat al Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM) along the Sikasso–Kayes–Bamako corridor demonstrated how adversaries exploit logistical vulnerabilities to exert coercion and influence governance without seizing territory. Similar constraints across Dakar-Bamako, Abidjan-Ouagadougou, and Cotonou-Niamey corridors underscore the urgent need for diversified resilient infrastructure.

 

In this context, Morocco’s Atlantic Initiative offers a complementary vision: a corridor-based integration architecture linking Atlantic ports, inland routes, and energy systems to landlocked Sahelian economies. Anchored in Dakhla and leveraging Mauritanian gateways, it reduces structural penalties, broadens access to markets, and produces Mediterranean integration from beyond the basin. This initiative illustrates how strategic connectivity can simultaneously support security, economic development, and regional cooperation, offering a pathway that Sahelian states themselves can navigate to strengthen sovereignty.

 

As international actors recalibrate their involvement, the Sahel cannot be seen solely as a security challenge. Its future depends on the alignment of stability, governance, and connectivity. Building resilient corridors, securing supply chains, and fostering regional partnerships are essential not only to safeguard the Sahel today but to enable it to flourish tomorrow. In this sense, development and security are inseparable: one cannot be achieved without the other.

 

The Sahel is not simply a theater of crises; it is a laboratory of transformation. By recognizing the interplay of sovereignty, logistics, and strategic corridors, regional actors, and their partners, can turn fragility into opportunity, charting a course for a Sahel that is secure, connected, and resilient.

PUBLICATIONS

Unlocking the Sahel, Reconfiguring the Western Mediterranean: Morocco’s Atlantic Initiative as an Integration Corridor

 

Amine Ghoulidi, Rida Lyammouri

 

The Western Mediterranean’s exposure to the Sahel is typically framed through security, but Sahelian access conditions are now reshaping Mediterranean integration. Morocco’s Atlantic Initiative operates as a corridor architecture linking Atlantic ports, inland routes, and energy systems to connect landlocked Sahelian economies to maritime access. Anchored in Dakhla, hinged on Mauritania, and driven by Sahelian demand for diversified access, it reduces the structural penalty of landlockedness. Mediterranean integration is thus increasingly produced through corridors originating beyond the basin and re-entering it through gateway states... Read more

 

(FR) The Sovereignty of the Sahel Alliance States: Ambitions and Constraints

 

Nezha Alaoui M’hammdi, Larabi Jaïdi

 

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, united within the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), aim to assert sovereignty by reducing external dependence and reclaiming political and economic autonomy, yet face major economic and security constraints. Their economies remain reliant on raw material exports, with limited structural transformation, while monetary independence would require credible regional institutions and macroeconomic stabilization tools. At the same time, persistent jihadist threats highlight the need for a fully integrated joint force capable of securing territory and restoring social cohesion. Sovereignty, in this context, depends as much on economic restructuring as on effective security consolidation... Read more

 

(FR) The AES in the Face of Territorial Fragmentation and Political Instability

 

Nezha Alaoui M’hammdi, Larabi Jaïdi

 

The creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) marked a major political and geostrategic shift, emphasizing sovereignty and anti-Western rhetoric. Two years on, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger struggle to secure territorial integrity, stabilize internal security, and build effective governance. In the Sahel, territorial integrity goes beyond border defense to the state’s ability to exercise authority across its territory. All three countries face persistent fragmentation driven by jihadism, political crises, and socio-economic challenges... Read more

 

Corridors of the Alliance of Sahel States: Logistical Vulnerabilities, Security Constraints, and Adaptation Dynamics

 

Chaïma Jabbar

 

Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger remain reliant on a few maritime corridors, limiting their resilience to disruptions and exposing supply-chain vulnerabilities. JNIM’s Kayes-Nioro blockade highlighted the critical role of the Dakar-Bamako corridor, quickly disrupting flows and revealing limited alternatives. Political tensions and poor infrastructure further constrain Abidjan-Ouagadougou, Cotonou-Niamey, Conakry, and Nouakchott routes, while varied customs regimes and illicit flows exacerbate fragility. The episode underscores how corridor disruptions can cascade across AES states, affecting operational and economic stability... Read more

 

 

(FR) The Sahel: A Region of Multiple Enclavements

 

Nezha Alaoui M’hammdi, Larabi Jaïdi

 

This paper examines the Sahel as a space of multiple forms of landlockedness: external, internal, and cross-border, shaped by territorial dysfunctions and long-standing structural constraints. Beyond geographic remoteness from coasts, internal marginalization and informal, insecure cross-border flows deepen fragmentation. While infrastructure development is necessary, it is insufficient without rethinking maritime-continental complementarities and the strategic choice of ports. Corridors must evolve from transit routes into integrated spaces of value creation, requiring coordinated territorial planning that balances supranational frameworks with national and local initiatives... Read more

 

AI-Enabled Purple Teaming for Sahel Convoy Security: Case of Fuel Blockade by JNIM

 

Rida Lyammouri, Niccola Milnes

 

In 2025, Jama’t Nusrat al Islam wal-Muslimeen (JNIM) turned fuel access into a strategic lever in Mali, using blockades along the Sikasso–Kayes–Bamako corridor to pressure Bamako without holding territory. By controlling fuel flow, the group exerted coercion, governance influence, and narrative control over the capital. Drawing on nearly 3,000 ACLED-recorded activities and AI-enabled adversarial modeling, this analysis reconstructs JNIM’s decision cycles, identifies vulnerabilities, and tests countermeasures against its operational tactics... Read more

 

 

(AR) Paths of Political Violence Production in the Sahel

 

El Mostafa Rezrazi

 

Since 2025, the Sahel has faced unprecedented political violence and terrorism, driven by weak governance, failing security institutions, and declining international presence, with groups like JNIM and ISIS-GS expanding. Burkina Faso sees the most casualties, Niger a new terrorist haven, while women and girls face heightened risks. The retreat of French and U.S. influence has left a geopolitical void exploited by Russia amid G5 Sahel failures. Morocco’s Atlantic Initiative offers a strategic path linking security, stability, and development through equitable economic partnerships... Read more

 

(FR) Once Upon a Time, the G5 Sahel…

 

Abdelhak Bassou

 

In 2014, five Sahel countries formed the G5 Sahel to address security and development, but security dominated while development lagged. After years of ineffective counterterrorism, popular unrest led coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, severing ties with France and leaving the G5 inactive. French forces were replaced by Russia’s “Africa Corps,” and the three Liptako-Gourma states formed the AES, later the CES in 2024, leaving Mauritania and Chad’s role uncertain... Read more

 

 

REPORT

Peuhl women’s lives under JNIM in the Central Sahel

 

Corinne Dufka, Niccola Milnes, Rida Lyammouri

 

This report explores how Peuhl women experience life under the governance of Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in Mali and Burkina Faso. Drawing on 77 interviews, it shows that women’s adaptation to insurgent rule is often driven by survival rather than radicalisation. Their testimonies reveal how coercion, service provision, and state abuses shape perceptions of legitimacy. The study underscores the need for conflict and counterterrorism responses that take women’s lived realities into account... Read more

 

MULTIMEDIA

Stability and Realignment in the Sahel: What Role for Global and Middle Powers and Atlantic Africa

 

The Sahel faces insurgencies, political instability, climate shocks, and humanitarian crises. How are global powers, middle powers, and Atlantic African nations shaping security, governance, and development in the region? Join us as we explore challenges, opportunities, and the path forward for a stable and integrated Sahel... Watch

 

 

Countering JNIM’s Drone Proliferation in the Sahel

 

 

In this podcast, we examine the rise of drone use by non-state armed groups in the Sahel. The discussion highlights how civilian drones are being transformed into weapons, the regional security implications of these tactics, and the importance of stronger coordination among states to confront this evolving threat.. Listen

 

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