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The ongoing war in Iran and rising tensions across the Middle East have captured global attention, as countries and markets closely monitor the unfolding crisis. The international community is watching not only for immediate security implications but also for the broader impacts on energy markets, trade flows, and geopolitical stability, fully aware that the Middle East remains a linchpin of global energy supply. Critical chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, starkly reveal the fragility of these supply chains, and any disruption reverberates far beyond the region, affecting oil prices, trade, and investment strategies worldwide. These tensions compel nations and corporations alike to reassess risks, diversify energy sources, and reconsider strategic dependencies, underscoring the deep interconnection between regional security and global economic stability.

 

Beyond energy, these developments carry profound implications for trade, investment, security policies, and diplomatic alignments. Rather than stabilizing the region, the resurgence of competing geopolitical blocs highlights persistent fractures, where local conflicts often mirror wider global rivalries. This conflict illustrates that the traditional logic of spheres of influence has never truly disappeared. In today’s multipolar world, major powers and influential regional actors actively seek to shape strategic and economic zones through flexible alliances, competitive positioning, and proxy engagements.

 

Grasping this intricate multipolar landscape is crucial, as overlapping spheres of influence do more than shape immediate political and economic dynamics, they actively define the strategic trajectory of a region whose stability and resources remain pivotal to global power calculations, economic flows, and long-term security architectures.

TRENDING ISSUE – FOCUS ON THE MIDDLE EAST

(FR) War in the Middle East : What Impact on Global Energy Prices ?

 

Francis Perrin

 

This podcast explores how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are shaping global energy markets. It underscores the region’s pivotal role in oil and gas supply, particularly given the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz. The discussion highlights price surges comparable to past geopolitical crises, while emphasizing the need for energy diversification and the potential opportunities for other producing regions, notably in Africa... Listen

 

 

Middle East Security Landscape

 

Tobias Borck

 

The Middle East is increasingly central to global attention due to significant internal transformations. States in the region are becoming more assertive, pursuing independent foreign policies and national security interests based on their own perceptions of threats. This assertiveness, evident amid global conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, reflects a growing trend towards self-reliance and strategic autonomy as Middle Eastern states define their destinies in a complex global environment... Listen

 

MENA Middle Powers and the New Regional Diplomacy

 

Massimo Khairallah 

 

This podcast examines the rising role of MENA middle powers as diplomatic brokers amid shifting alliances and declining security guarantees. Massimo Khairollah discusses how these states are redefining regional diplomacy through diversified partnerships, humanitarian engagement, and strategic autonomy in an increasingly fragmented geopolitical landscape... Listen

 

Before The Crisis: Lessons From Iraq’s Pre-ISIS Economy

 

Eduardo Amaral Haddad, Inácio F. Araújo, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings

 

This paper details Iraq's pre-ISIS economic structure, highlighting its heavy and uneven dependence on oil, which primarily benefited wealthier regions and households while creating few jobs. It reveals deep-rooted regional disparities and regressive distributional effects of oil revenues. The authors emphasize the critical need for Iraq to diversify its economy, build local capacity, strengthen social protection, and address spatial inequalities using its oil wealth... Read more

 

 

OP-EDS AND PUBLICATIONS

President Trump’s Post-Emergency Tariff Wall

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

This piece discusses President Donald Trump's use of legal instruments, beyond the U.S. International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to establish tariffs. It specifically mentions the implementation of U.S. reciprocal tariffs on countries starting in April 2025, following a Supreme Court decision against his previous use of IEEPA for tariffs... Read more

 

The Age of Containment Is Over

 

Marcus Vinícius De Freitas

 

This piece explores the end of the lockdown era and the challenges the United States faces in maintaining its global leadership in a shifting international order, characterized by protectionist policies and heightened competition... Read more

 

 

Latin America, World Politics and the Great Powers

 

Nizar Messari

 

This paper examines how significant historical milestones have redefined global power structures and shaped the evolution of transatlantic relations. It discusses major transitions in international relations, from the Peace of Westphalia to the end of the Cold War, and how the fall of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact ushered in a new era... Read more

 

(FR) Oil and the Return of Spheres of Influence

 

Yves Jégourel

 

This article analyzes the American intervention in Venezuela, linking it to the control of oil resources and the resurgence of spheres-of-influence dynamics in international relations... Read more

 

 

How Sustainable Is the U.S. Economic ‘K’?

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

The U.S. economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, where AI-driven growth and rising stock values benefit the top while wages and jobs stagnate at the bottom, with trade tensions and tariffs straining manufacturing and labor markets; its long-term sustainability hinges on inclusive policies, labor reforms, and social safety nets to address widening inequality... Read more

 

(FR) Trump and the Fault Lines of the International Order

 

Ferid Belhaj

 

This paper offers a critical, and deeply structured reading of the geopolitical shift of the Trump 2.0 era, highlighting the end of a universalist multilateral cycle and the emergence of a world based on power, conditional loyalty, and strategic fragmentation. The challenge of the 21st century is clear: to rebuild the global order with, or despite, its fractures... Read more

 

 

AFRICAFE

U.S. Influence in Africa

 

This episode of Africafé explores the evolving dynamics of US-Africa relations, tracing their historical shifts from Cold War and War on Terror engagements to today’s focus on trade, investment, and strategic partnerships. Dr. Ian Lesser highlights how Africa’s role in US foreign policy, while not a top priority, is increasingly shaped by commercial interests, resource competition, and a move away from traditional aid toward private-sector-driven initiatives... Watch

 

 
 

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