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For decades, multilateralism was the operating system of global order. It structured trade, constrained power, and offered weaker states a measure of protection against raw geopolitics. Today, that system no longer holds the same authority and the question is no longer whether multilateralism is in crisis, but whether it can still function in a world shaped by rivalry, fragmentation, and shifting power.

 

Recent years have marked a dramatic acceleration of this erosion. From trade disputes and global institutional paralysis to withdrawals from major international agreements, key actors have openly challenged the very institutions that underpin global governance. Yet focusing on individual episodes or specific leadership choices risks missing the deeper story. The weakening of multilateralism is rooted in longer-term trends and reflects transformations that extend well beyond recent political cycles.

 

At its core, the crisis reflects a structural transformation of the international system. Multilateralism flourished under conditions of limited polarity, when a small group of dominant powers could impose rules while offering incentives for a broad compliance. That era is over. The rise of new powers, the growing assertiveness of middle states, and the fragmentation of global interests have produced a polycentric world in which consensus is increasingly elusive.

 

Institutions designed for hierarchy now struggle to function under conditions of parity. Trade governance, once a central driver of liberalization, has increasingly become a site of contestation and deadlock. In the security realm, inclusive multilateral frameworks are frequently sidelined in favor of flexible coalitions, regional mechanisms, or issue-specific arrangements that allow greater strategic autonomy.

 

This evolution does not signal the collapse of multilateralism, but rather a profound transformation of its meaning and practice. For some actors, it remains a mechanism to preserve existing rules; for others, a means of mitigating asymmetries of power; for still others, a constraint to be navigated or bypassed when it conflicts with national priorities. What endures are not necessarily comprehensive agreements, but a dense fabric of norms, inherited rules, global value chains, and institutional habits that continue to shape international interaction even as formal cooperation becomes more selective and contested. The challenge ahead is not to nostalgically defend yesterday’s multilateralism, but to rethink cooperation for a world where power is diffuse, trust is scarce, and consensus can no longer be taken for granted.

PUBLICATIONS

Crisis or Opportunity? Pockets of Effective Multilateralism in a Polycentric World

 

Len Ishmael, Stephan Klingebiel, Andy Sumner

 

Global cooperation is under stress. It hardly requires detailed analysis: the international system is in a profound crisis, when seen from many Northern vantage points. What if we see the same turbulence but from a different vantage point? For many in the Global South the current period signals risk, but also opportunity. That the same events could spark a sense of crisis in one group but opportunity in another is nothing new. However, the sheer scale, speed, and scope of recent events is significant. The global order is shifting, power dynamics are fluid, and a transition is underway. How should the current moment be viewed? As a crisis or opportunity? And for whom? What does cooperation look like in a fragmenting world?... Read more

 

Plurilateralism and Regionalism as Alternatives to Multilateralism in Global Trade

 

Hung Q. Tran

 

The multilateral, rule-based trading system underpinned by the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been undermined by the unilateral imposition of U.S. tariffs. Crucially, the foundational principle of non-discrimination among WTO members has been abandoned. While many countries have attempted to negotiate with the U.S. to resolve tariff disputes, they have simultaneously sought to deepen trade ties with each other through plurilateral and regional trading arrangements. In this sense, plurilateralism and regionalism can be viewed as alternatives to multilateralism in reconfiguring international trading relationships. These approaches can be useful, though not without limitations, and they will continue to drive both trade diversion and trade creation during and after the tariff war... Read more

 

In Search of a Plan B: Like-Minded Internationalism and the Future of Global Development

 

Len Ishmael, Stephan Klingebiel, Andy Sumner

 

The international order is undergoing a profound transformation as the post-1945 multilateral system shaped under U.S. hegemony and grounded in liberal values such as open markets, rules-based cooperation, and global development is increasingly fragmenting. This paper develops the concept of like-minded internationalism, a model of selective, issue-based cooperation among countries and actors aligned around shared normative commitments and pragmatic objectives rather than universal consensus or hierarchical leadership... Read more

 

Shaping a New World? Middle Powers and Global Governance

 

Alberto Tagliapietra, Guilherme Casarões

 

Global governance is undergoing a profound shift, marked by rising polarization, weakened multilateral institutions, and the growing role of informal and flexible frameworks. As great powers retreat from multilateral commitments in favor of transactional or unilateral approaches, middle powers are increasingly shaping the evolving international order. This paper examines both the potential of middle powers and the limits they face in influencing global governance, focusing on the strategies they deploy and the structural constraints that shape their role... Read more

 

2025: Year of The Middle Powers

 

Hung Q. Tran

 

As competition among superpowers intensifies and fragments the global economy, middle powers countries below great-power status but with meaningful regional influence are coming under growing pressure. The combined impact of a more unilateral and transactional U.S. posture under a second Trump presidency and China’s expanding manufacturing dominance is forcing these states to adapt by reconfiguring trade and investment, securing access to critical minerals, managing higher geopolitical costs, and forming ad hoc coalitions to sustain their economic development... Read more

 

The Global Impact of President Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs

 

Hinh T. Dinh, Otaviano Canuto

 

President Trump’s “Reciprocal Tariff” policy, announced in April 2025, marks a major shift in U.S. trade policy by targeting countries deemed to have non-reciprocal trading practices. Analysis shows that while the policy may reduce U.S. trade imbalances, it generates efficiency losses and ambiguous welfare effects. Developing countries, particularly those with export-oriented economies in Africa and Asia, are likely to face disproportionate disruption, potential setbacks in development, and structural changes to global value chains, with consequences extending far beyond immediate trade issues... Read more

 

ANNUAL TRENDS REPORT

Beyond Global Polarization: New Cooperation Wanted (3^rd Edition)

 

Edited by Karim El Aynaoui, Paolo Magri, Samir Saran

 

This book examines a world increasingly marked by great power rivalry, regional conflicts, and economic nationalism, where traditional mechanisms of international cooperation are under strain. The book highlights emerging pragmatic partnerships across regions and sectors, from AI governance to peacebuilding and trade that transcend historical divides, showing that constructive, inclusive cooperation is still possible. Through case studies and analyses, it underscores the need to balance innovation in global collaboration with the preservation and reform of long-standing international institutions to address shared global challenges... Read more

 

PODCAST

Strategic Shifts: Great Powers, Middle Players, and Global Stakes

 

The global order is undergoing significant transformations. With Donald Trump's return to the political stage, escalating US-China tensions, and the rising influence of assertive middle powers, international affairs are more fragmented and unpredictable than ever. This episode explores how great powers are redefining their strategies, how middle players are recalibrating their roles, and what this means for global governance, diplomacy, and economic policy... Listen

EVENT

Crisis or Opportunity? Multilateralism in a Polycentric World

 

The Policy Center for the New South hosted a seminar on January 16, 2026, titled “Crisis or Opportunity? Multilateralism in a Polycentric World.” The event examined how global cooperation is being strained by overlapping shocks, from finance and climate to security and technology amid contested international norms and tightening public budgets. Drawing on the speakers’ recent Policy Paper, the seminar highlighted emerging forms of pragmatic multilateralism, focusing on problem-specific coalitions that sustain cooperation through “pockets of effectiveness.”... Read more

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