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For a moment, it appeared that the conflict had begun to ease.
The June memorandum between Washington and Tehran was widely interpreted as the beginning of de-escalation after months of military confrontation that shook the Gulf and pushed the Strait of Hormuz to the brink. Markets stabilized, shipping resumed cautiously, and policymakers spoke of a diplomatic off-ramp.
That optimism has proved premature. The past week has demonstrated that the U.S.-Iran conflict has entered a more dangerous phase, not one of peace, but of managed escalation. New U.S. strikes against Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian drone and missile attacks against American positions and regional partners, and renewed threats to disrupt Gulf energy exports have exposed the fragility of the diplomatic understanding reached only weeks ago. Rather than ending the conflict, the agreement merely suspended its most visible manifestations.
The lesson is increasingly clear: ceasefires are no longer synonymous with stability. They have become ‘tactical pauses’ within longer strategic confrontations. Hormuz illustrates this new reality better than anywhere else. Every military exchange, every threat against commercial shipping, and every disruption of maritime traffic immediately reverberates through global energy markets, insurance premiums, commodity prices, and supply chains. The Strait has evolved from a regional flashpoint into one of the world's most consequential geopolitical pressure points, a place where military signaling and economic coercion intersect.
This is precisely why the conflict matters far beyond the Gulf. For countries across Africa, Latin America, and Asia, the consequences are neither abstract nor distant. Higher freight costs, volatile energy prices, disruptions to fertilizer supplies, and growing uncertainty over critical mineral and food markets translate directly into inflationary pressures and slower economic growth. Geography offers little protection in an era where strategic chokepoints connect every economy.
The deeper transformation, however, extends beyond Hormuz itself. The conflict reflects the emergence of a geopolitical landscape where infrastructure has become strategy. Sea lanes, ports, undersea cables, energy corridors, and logistics networks are increasingly contested alongside territory. Power is exercised less through occupation than through the ability to interrupt the circulation of goods, energy, capital, and information. The competition is no longer only for land; it is for flows.
In this edition, we invite you to discover our latest three-part webinar series accompanying a new collection of research examining the conflict from strategic, economic, legal, and security perspectives. The series asks three fundamental questions. How is the U.S.-Iran confrontation reshaping great-power competition and the evolving international order? What vulnerabilities has it exposed across global energy, food, and critical mineral markets? And what strategic lessons should countries of the New South draw from a crisis whose consequences have reached far beyond the Middle East?
These questions have become even more urgent as recent developments suggest that the conflict is moving into a prolonged phase of calibrated military pressure rather than decisive resolution. Diplomatic channels remain open, yet military exchanges continue. Shipping lanes remain operational, yet vulnerable. Markets remain functional, yet increasingly sensitive to every headline. The current situation might not be a post-war stabilization but more of an unstable equilibrium in which escalation and de-escalation coexist.
The Strait of Hormuz therefore remains more than a maritime chokepoint and a stress test for the global order itself, revealing the fragility of interconnected economies, the limits of deterrence, and the growing importance of strategic resilience.
The war, as it turns out, did not end. It merely changed its rhythm.
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(FR) The Straits of Disorder: from Hormuz to Malacca: The Law of the Sea, Power, and the Fragmentation of the World Order
Ferid Belhaj
This paper examines the 2026 Iran–United States war as a revealing moment in the profound transformation of the international order. Through the lens of the law of the sea, the Strait of Hormuz, fragmented alliances, submarine cables, and global energy flows, it argues that global power is gradually shifting from the control of territory to the control of the infrastructures that enable circulation. Rather than disappearing, globalization is entering a phase of strained connectivity, in which interdependencies have become strategic vulnerabilities... Read more
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The Global Costs of Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz
Mehran Haghirian
The war on Iran and in the Gulf has made it impossible to treat the Strait of Hormuz as a regional issue. The disruption around the Strait has moved through the world economy in concrete ways, from higher fuel bills and pressure on food and fertilizer supply chains to rising costs for households and companies far from the conflict. This policy brief examines how Hormuz became one of the main channels through which the costs of the war spread beyond the Gulf. It argues that the crisis exposed the extent to which global markets, food systems, industrial production, mobility, and development finance are tied to the Gulf’s stability... Read more
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The U.S.-Iran War and Energy: Ten Dangerous Linkages
Francis Perrin
The close relationship between energy and geopolitics is well established, as is the role of energy in many armed conflicts. In recent years, however, no conflict has been more closely intertwined with energy than the 2026 Iran war, which began on February 28. Although a ceasefire has been in effect since April 8 and a memorandum of understanding was signed by Iran and the United States on June 17, recent Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and U.S. strikes carried out between July 6 and 13, the latter marking the completion of this Policy Brief, demonstrate that hostilities are far from over... Read more
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Stress Test: The Hormuz Crisis and the Fracturing of the Global Energy Order
Rim Berahab, Sabrine Emran
This policy paper examines the mechanics of the oil-price shock, then assesses the structural importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy chokepoint, through which an estimated 17.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and LNG transited before the Iran conflict. It highlights the limited substitutability of existing bypass infrastructure under conditions of sustained disruption. It also evaluates the fragmentation of the OPEC+ framework, including the United Arab Emirates’s announced withdrawal from the alliance on May 1, 2026, marking a critical point in the erosion of coordinated production management among major Gulf exporters. Finally, it analyses the role of renewable energy as a structural variable in the crisis, not as a short-term buffer, but as an accelerating force reshaping the geopolitical foundations of energy security... Read more
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PCNS Webinars | Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures
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The US-Iran Conflict and the New Great-Power Landscape: Transatlantic Strains and China's Strategic Calculus
This session explores how the US-Iran conflict is reshaping relations among major global powers. The discussion assesses the impact of the crisis on transatlantic cohesion, the evolving positions of Europe and the United States, and China's strategic calculations in this changing environment. Particular attention is being paid to the implications for global governance, great-power competition, and the emerging international order... Watch
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Commodity Shockwaves: How the U.S.-Iran Conflict Reshapes Global Energy, Food and Mineral Markets
This session examines the global commodity repercussions of the Iran conflict, focusing on energy markets, food security, and critical mineral supply chains. It assesses the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz as a major global trade chokepoint and the vulnerabilities it exposes across regions. The discussion also addresses how Africa and South America can strengthen their resilience to commodity shocks and supply disruptions in an increasingly fragmented global economy... Watch
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(FR) Strategic, Economic, and Security Lessons from the U.S.–Iran War
This session examines the strategic lessons emerging from the confrontation between the United States and Iran, highlighting evolving forms of deterrence, hybrid warfare, and regional competition. It also explores the conflict's economic and trade implications, with particular attention to the Strait of Hormuz. Finally, the discussion addresses the security repercussions across the Middle East, Africa, and the Sahel, and considers their broader implications for regional and international stability... Watch
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Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: The Price of a Distant War - Views from the New South
Abdelhak Bassou Ferid Belhaj Ian O. Lesser Marcus Vinicius de Freitas Rida Lyammouri Otaviano Canuto Hafez Ghanem Hinh T. Dinh Hugo A. Mansilla
This new PCNS volume explores the Strait of Hormuz not only as a vital maritime chokepoint, but also as a revealing fault line in a rapidly evolving international order. Introduced by Dr. Karim El Aynaoui and Dr. Mohammed Loulichki, the volume brings together nine multidisciplinary chapters written by experts, researchers, and Senior Fellows from the Policy Center for the New South... Read more
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