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Brazil heads into a presidential runoff on October 25, with implications that extend well beyond the ballot box. The outcome could shape Latin America’s largest economy, redefine its foreign policy priorities, and influence its standing in an increasingly fragmented global order. At stake are competing visions for growth, strategic autonomy, and Brazil’s role as a regional and global power.

 

This week’s newsletter examines the political and economic forces shaping Brazil’s future. From the competing agendas of the 2026 presidential election to persistent productivity challenges, innovation gaps, and the prospects for sustainable growth, our selection of analyses looks at the structural pressures facing the country. It also explores how renewable energy, climate resilience, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping Brazil’s economic outlook.

 

Beyond its domestic challenges, Brazil’s international ambitions are also in focus. Its evolving relations with the United States and BRICS+, the economic potential of its Atlantic coastline, and expanding partnerships with Africa offer a window into the country’s role in South-South cooperation and transatlantic relations.

 

As voters prepare to decide Brazil’s political direction, a larger question remains: Can the country turn its economic potential, diplomatic reach, and Atlantic connections into lasting growth, greater resilience, and stronger influence on the global stage?

PUBLICATIONS

The Brazilian Electoral Cycle of 2026 and its National, Regional and International Impacts

 

Nizar Messari

 

In October 2026, Brazil will elect its president. It will also renew the entire lower legislative chamber and two-thirds of the upper chamber, elect governors in all states, and renew state legislatures. What will be the impact of these elections nationally, regionally, and internationally? Who are the main presidential candidates, and what are their agendas? What are the main challenges facing Brazil over the coming years? These are the questions that this Policy Brief seeks to answer, taking into account the results of the first round of elections, held on October 4, and looking ahead to the second round, scheduled for October 25... Read more

Brazil’s Election and Global South Autonomy

 

Marcus Vinicius de Freitas

 

Brazil's election poses a question that extends well beyond Latin America: how much freedom does a country retain to define its international role when external pressure collides with domestic political exhaustion? For the Global South, the answer matters more than any foreign government's preference regarding the next occupant of the presidential palace. Strategic autonomy remains fragile if every change of government puts a country's freedom of action back up for negotiation... Read more 

Business Environment and Productivity in Brazil

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

This report addresses the business environment in Brazil as one of the determinants responsible for the weak evolution of productivity in recent decades. After addressing this productivity performance, we define what constitutes the business environment, using as a reference the three ways in which the World Bank has been addressing the subject. Next, we highlight how the business environment affects productivity in a country. Finally, we review some recent reforms in the country's business environment and available evidence on their likely effects on productivity... Read more

 

The Challenge of Fostering Innovation and Accelerating Economic Growth in Brazil

 

Sérgio R. R. de Queiroz, Nicholas S. Vonortas, Otaviano Canuto

 

This paper aims to demonstrate how certain transformations in the international economy since the 1980s notably the globalization of firms and industries¾combined with a set of domestic challenges, disrupted the path of industrial and technological development that Brazil had pursued since the 1930s. In essence, growth strategies based on the scale of the domestic market ceased to be effective. The innovation and economic challenges the country now faces cannot be addressed without a clear understanding of these processes... Read more

 

Climate and Policy Resilience in Brazilian Renewable Energy

 

Pedro Henrique de Christo, Travis Knoll, Otaviano Canuto

 

The Brazilian context involving a clean-electricity base, a more balanced lobbying landscape, and mounting climate and social pressure, makes it more difficult for the kind of abrupt and unrestrained energy policy swing seen in Colombia. The trend in Brazil tends to be more economically viable for renewables. However, these structural conditions by themselves will not guarantee the success of the transition. Fruition will depend on whether policymakers use this window to prepare for unavoidable climate disruption and the technological shifts of the coming decades, directing investment and infrastructure to real demand with disciplined allocation of scarce resources that can benefit communities and not just small segments of society... Read more

 

The Geography of the Atlantic Ocean Economy in Brazil

 

Eduardo Amaral Haddad, Inaciao F.Araujo

 

This study quantifies the contributions of Brazil’s blue economy and explores the economic interdependence between coastal and hinterland regions through interregional linkages. Employing a multi-level approach, we analyze municipality and state-level data on oceanrelated activities. Using an interstate input-output model, we estimate the value chains of the blue economy, offering a deeper understanding of its systemic impacts. This study addresses gaps in national, regional, and local assessments, providing insights for more tailored policy interventions across Brazil’s diverse coastal regions... Read more

 

The Brazilian Economy’s Double Disease

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

 

The Brazilian economy is stuck in a so-called middle-income trap—growth that stalled long before Brazil caught up with the living standards of the highly industrialized countries. After exhibiting a stellar performance in the decades before the 1980s, the economy has since been unable to sustain growth for long periods.

The predicament can be summarized using a medical analogy: Brazil has been suffering from both productivity anemia and public sector bloat. On the one hand, it hasn’t enjoyed the sort of productivity growth expected of economies at this stage of development— the harvesting of easy efficiency gains ranging from improved business organization to rapid diffusion of imported technology... Read more

 

Brazil and the U.S. in the Aftermath of the BRICS+ Summit

 

Nizar Messari

 

This paper analyzes the impact of the BRICS+ Summit of July 2025 on the evolution of the bloc, as well as on the relationship between the bloc and the U.S. under President Trump. It also tackles the aftermath of the summit and in particular the impact it had in the souring of Brazil-U.S. relations. Before the paper analyzes the impact of BRICS+ on Morocco, it goes over the consequences of the events that resulted from the summit on the Brazilian political sphere... Read more

 

BOOK

Morocco-Brazil Relations: A Multidimensional Atlantic Partnership

 

A country's areas of strategic interest are defined by its values, principles, and expectations. In this context, unprecedented opportunities are emerging for two key Atlantic States, Brazil and Morocco, to forge a mutually beneficial partnership. This premise underscores the deep-rooted social and geohistorical connections between both sides of the Atlantic. Recognizing this potential suggests that building stronger Atlantic bonds could advance shared interests, grounded in an evolving South-South cooperation framework.

 

This environment opens up possibilities for multisectoral cooperation between Brazil and Morocco, positioning the Atlantic as a (geo)political arena for meaningful and promising dialogue. As a result, these two pivotal nations have the opportunity to work together in advancing a collaborative and proactive agenda, with the potential to benefit the entire Atlantic Community.

 

To this end, the book aims to provide critical reflections across a range of areas, including defense and security, finance and trade, infrastructure, agriculture and food security, clean energy and climate change, social issues, the blue economy, and more. Contributions from renowned scholars will present actionable alternatives to enhance and maximize the strategic partnership between Brazil and Morocco... Read more

MULTIMEDIA

Brazil's Relationship with Africa

 

Nizar Messari

 

This Africafe's episode examines Brazil-Africa relations: historical ties shaped by the slave trade and diaspora, Lula’s trade expansion, and competition with China/EU. It explores South-South diplomacy’s potential to reshape global institutions, the role of “South Atlanticism,” and future cooperation opportunities and limits. How can these partnerships redefine post-Cold War dynamics?... Watch

The Brazilian Perspective on Emerging Leaders

 

Eduarda Zoghbi

 

In this podcast, Atlantic Dialogues Emerging Leader Eduarda Zoghbi highlights the growing influence of the Global South and advocates for the inclusion of younger voices in global discussions and intergenerational dialogue. The episode explores how young leaders are challenging power dynamics and promoting inclusive, collaborative solutions to global challenges. The podcast underscores the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation in shaping the future... Listen

 

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