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The 250th anniversary of the United States naturally invites a look backward. Two and a half centuries encompass the transformation of a young republic into an industrial power, the emergence of the United States as a central actor in the international order, and the expansion of its economic, technological, military and cultural influence. Yet, from the New South, the more relevant question may be less what the United States has become over the past 250 years than what kind of power it is becoming today.

 

This year comes at a particular moment in U.S. history. The international order with which American leadership has long been associated is under pressure. Economic power is more widely distributed, geopolitical competition has intensified, and countries across Africa, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East are seeking greater agency in defining their partnerships and strategic choices. At the same time, debates within the United States increasingly focus on the costs and terms of its global engagement and activism.

 

These two transformations: one international, the other domestic, are becoming difficult to separate.

 

The U.S. economy illustrates this tension. It remains a remarkable source of innovation and investment, with artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure opening new possibilities for productivity and growth. Yet this dynamism coexists with persistent fiscal deficits, mounting public debt, elevated long-term interest rates and increasingly uneven economic outcomes. The image of a “K-shaped” U.S. economy captures part of this contradiction: technological and financial expansion at one end, while other sectors and households face weaker purchasing power and greater uncertainty.

 

What happens inside the United States, however, rarely remains inside the United States. The dollar, U.S. financial markets and American demand retain such weight in the global economy that changes in fiscal, monetary and trade policy are transmitted internationally. For countries with tighter fiscal space and greater exposure to external financing, commodity prices or imported inflation, those effects can be particularly consequential.

 

The same is true of the return of tariffs as an instrument of U.S. economic policy. Beyond their immediate effects on trade, they signal a wider shift in the assumptions that have governed the international economy. This raises two related questions: to what extent have President Trump’s tariffs addressed U.S. trade imbalances, and what would it take to improve America’s fiscal position and restore confidence in the U.S. as a global trading partner?

 

Geopolitics reinforces this picture. Developments involving Venezuela, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz illustrate how American strategic choices can generate shockwaves far beyond the original theater of confrontation. The ongoing oil shock is a reminder of how quickly geopolitical tensions can translate into higher energy costs, shipping disruptions and broader pressures across global commodity markets. For the New South, these effects are particularly significant, underscoring a broader reality: geographic distance offers diminishing protection from geopolitical shocks.

 

Yet the New South should not be understood merely as the receiving end of decisions taken elsewhere. The fragmentation of the international system is also creating new strategic spaces. Alternative corridors, new commercial relationships, regional integration and the growing importance of Africa’s Atlantic façade point to a world in which countries are seeking to reduce vulnerabilities while expanding their room for maneuver even in times of greater uncertainty.

This is perhaps what makes the view from the New South particularly relevant as the United States marks 250 years since its founding. It shifts the perspective from a debate about American primacy or decline to a more concrete question: how will the United States exercise power in a world in which others increasingly seek greater agency?

 

The United States remains deeply embedded in the economic and geopolitical realities of the New South. But those relationships are no longer shaped by American choices alone and the next chapter will also depend on how countries across the South respond, adapt, connect with one another, and define their own interests.

At 250, the American story remains global. Increasingly, however, it is also a story being interpreted, and partly reshaped, from elsewhere.

POWER, ECONOMY AND A CHANGING INTERNATIONAL ROLE

The United States at 250: A Mediterranean Perspective

 

Ian Lesser

 

With America's 250th anniversary, there will be many analyses of the country's history from domestic and international perspectives. But the meaning of the American story should also be assessed in key regional settings, from Asia to Latin America, and in transatlantic terms. In this vein, it is worth exploring the U.S. engagement in and with the Mediterranean world, one of the first places of U.S. international activism, and a setting where diverse aspects of U.S. foreign policy have been on full display. The Mediterranean experience offers a window into the evolution and the future of the U.S.'s international role... Read more

Whither the U.S. Fiscal and Trade Deficits

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

Thanks to the AI investment boom, the U.S. economy has performed well at the macroeconomic level. However, it is on an unsustainable fiscal and debt path. Mr. Trump’s fiscal policy in his second term has aggravated this trajectory. In turn, Mr. Trump’s tariff-based trade policy has failed to address what he sees as U.S. economic problems associated with the trade balance.  Besides explaining why this has been the case, and what its implications are for the U.S. economy and the rest of the world, this policy paper addresses what it would take for the U.S. to reverse both its fiscal position and the erosion of confidence in the U.S. as a global trading partner... Read more 

Benign or Malign? The Rise in Long-Term U.S. Interest Rates Appears to Be Structural Rather Than Temporary

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

Long-term U.S. interest rates remain elevated despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to increase bond buybacks, suggesting that deeper economic forces are at play. Rising public debt, persistent fiscal deficits, inflation risks, and heavy borrowing by both the government and corporations are putting upward pressure on yields. This also raises questions about the Treasury’s greater reliance on short-term borrowing, which could increase refinancing risks if rates remain high. At the same time, higher yields may partly reflect stronger growth expectations, although Canuto cautions that this more optimistic scenario depends on productivity gains, including from AI, being strong enough to offset rising interest costs... Read more

 

How Sustainable Is the U.S. Economic ‘K’?

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

Global GDP growth remained resilient in 2025 despite shocks from U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump. Early pessimistic forecasts were revised upward, with growth estimates settling between 2.5% and 3%. Yet concerns persist, particularly in the United States. Technology investment and AI-related data-center construction have supported economic growth, while job creation has stagnated. The U.S. economy has followed a K-shaped trajectory, with rising wealth at the top driven by stock-market gains, while lower-income households face pressure from weak real wages and declining purchasing power... Read more

 

K-Shaped Developments in the World

 

Hung Q. Tran

 

The term “K-shaped recovery” was introduced to describe the economic recovery from the recession triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. It refers to the uneven and divergent growth pattern between leading industries or sectors (the upper arm of the letter K—mainly the high-technology sector) and laggards, or the rest of the economy (the lower arm, the traditional industries). Since then, the term has become popular in portraying divergent growth patterns within and between countries, especially as the high-tech sector has become even more important in driving GDP growth... Read more

 

(FR) Conflictuality as an Approach to Power Under Trump II

 

Driss Alaoui Belghiti

 

Under Trump II, conflictuality appears less as a consequence of partisan polarization than as an organizing principle of power. Drawing on presidential statements, this paper examines how immigration, security, fraud, cultural controversies, and international rivalries are framed around the restoration of order. Conflictuality thus operates as a technology of power, establishing a hierarchy of threats and reinforcing political divisions. This logic is also embedded in a continuous electoral cycle shaped by the prospect of the midterm elections. The paper then considers its extension into the international sphere, where foreign policy increasingly serves as a resource for domestic political mobilization, further blurring the boundary between domestic and foreign policy... Read more

 

Hegemonic Architecture: Strategic Dominance in the Twenty-First Century

 

Marcus Vinicius de Freitas

 

Predictions of American decline have become increasingly prevalent. The United States has run persistent trade deficits for decades, but its public debt now exceeds its annual economic output. Meanwhile, new centers of industrial and technological power continue to emerge across Asia. Yet despite these developments, no country has so far replaced the United States as the main organizing power of the international economy. Conventional explanations explain this in terms of U.S. military capabilities, technological leadership, and economic size. While each factor is important, none fully explains the resilience of U.S. influence... Read more

 

President Trump’s Post-Emergency Tariff Wall

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

The February 20 United States Supreme Court decision against President Donald Trump’s use of the U.S. International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to establish tariffs has led him to resort to other legal instruments. So-called U.S. reciprocal tariffs on countries set out in April 2025 were based on IEEPA, as were tariffs that allegedly punished countries for allowing fentanyl into the U.S. Trump tried to evade the constraints presented by other legal instruments that could facilitate tariffs, but is now forced to resort to them if he wants to rebuild the tariff wall he raised in 2025... Read more

 

U.S. FOREIGN POLICY, CONFLICTS AND GLOBAL REPERCUSSIONS

U.S. Intervention in Venezuela: Oil and the Resurgence of Spheres of Influence

 

Yves Jégourel

 

The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolàs Maduro caused international astonishment, raising questions about respect for international law. And, quite logically, the operation led to numerous analyses, both of the political, security and geostrategic arguments put forward by Washington, and of the underlying ambitions behind this decision, which has no real precedent in recent history. In addition to the fight against narco-trafficking, it was of course the oil issue that came first, noting the country's supposedly considerable reserves. However, there is little doubt that it will be extraordinarily difficult to return to the record production levels of past decades... Read more

A Distant Battlefield, Tangible Costs. The War on Iran's Toll on the Global South

 

Len Ishmael

 

The US-Israeli war on Iran, a 'little excursion' envisaged to be over within a matter of weeks, has entered its fourth month. Shock waves ripple across the globe. This war is just one in a series of recent crises which have fractured the international community, making the decades of the 2020's among the most disruptive in recent history. Each crisis compounds the deleterious effects of those which came before. The war in Iran is no exception. It abruptly stalled economic momentum for countries of the Global South struggling to regain conditions of stability within which prospects for growth might improve. Crippled by skyrocketing energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and debt crises, these countries face a harsh reality: for most, recovery is stunted, as inflation, recession and insolvency continue to spiral... Read more

 

Iran War and Energy: Ten Dangerous Linkages

 

Francis Perrin

 

The close relationship between energy and geopolitics is well established. The same holds true for several armed conflicts. In recent years, however, the conflict most closely intertwined with energy has been the 2026 Iran War, which began on February 28. A ceasefire has been in effect since April 8, and a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed by Iran and the United States on June 17. Nevertheless, as demonstrated by Iran's attacks on commercial vessels and recent U.S. strikes between July 6 and July 13, the date on which this Policy Brief was finalized, hostilities are far from over.  This war is not associated with one form of energy, but with three: nuclear energy and hydrocarbons (oil and natural gas)... Read more

(FR) The Sulfur Market Caught in the Grip of the Strait of Hormuz Crisis

 

Yves Jégourel

 

The outbreak of the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have had major repercussions across a wide range of global commodity markets. While media attention has understandably focused on oil and natural gas, as well as aluminum, given the strong dependence of its supply on energy prices, sulfur, along with helium, ethylene, propylene and urea, has also been caught in the fallout from the conflict. Far from being a marginal commodity, sulfur is essential to the production of nickel and copper, as well as fertilizers... Read more

 

When Crises Redraw Strategic Corridors: New Prospects for Africa’s Atlantic Façade

 

Meryam Amarir

 

Recent crises in the Middle East, particularly attacks targeting commercial vessels in the Red Sea and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, have highlighted the vulnerability of the main strategic corridors of global trade. Rather than fundamentally disrupting the organization of trade flows, these crises are accelerating an ongoing transformation driven by the search for more resilient connectivity chains, the diversification of trade routes, and the development of logistics infrastructure capable of better withstanding shocks... Read more

 

PODCAST

The United States at 250: A Mediterranean Perspective

 

Ian Lesser

 

In this episode, Senior Fellow Ian Lesser examines the United States’ longstanding ties with the Mediterranean as the country marks its 250th anniversary. He discusses how a possible shift in U.S. security priorities could affect the region and what European and regional partners, including Morocco, might do in response. The conversation also addresses U.S.–Morocco cooperation, China’s growing presence, and the challenges facing diplomacy in the Middle East... Listen

 

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