The Middle East is changing. After decades marked by conflict, instability, and external interventions, the region is entering a new era of strategic transformation. Old power centers are shifting: Saudi Arabia and the UAE are asserting themselves with bolder, more diversified foreign policies, while Iran’s influence, from the Levant to the Gulf, is being tested and reevaluated. Meanwhile, post-conflict reconstruction in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, along with ambitious economic visions like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s post-oil strategies, signal a push toward stability, modernization, and resilience.

 

The Middle East is no longer converging internally. Fragile states, including Iraq, Libya, and Syria, remain vulnerable, caught in cycles of instability and social fragmentation. High-performing states, especially the UAE, are surging ahead, leveraging diversification, strategic investments, and strong financial reserves to generate regional influence. And then there are the middle-tier countries, like Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, striving to overcome structural hurdles that slow their progress.

 

These divergent paths are reshaping old alliances and sparking new rivalries. Traditional competitors are cautiously re-engaging, while partnerships with rising powers, such as China, Russia, India are expanding, nudging the region toward a more multipolar, pragmatic order. For the United States and Europe, this shifting landscape demands a careful rethink of strategy and influence. Meanwhile, developments in the Horn of Africa illustrate the broader regional stakes.  Sudan’s violent conflict, Ethiopia’s structural reforms, and the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreements reveal how insecurity, climate pressures, and governance challenges spill across borders, linking development and security in fragile contexts.

 

Today, the Middle East is a place where pragmatism, strategic autonomy, and flexible partnerships are redefining power. As countries recalibrate their ambitions, one question looms large: which states will rise to shape a stable future, and which will remain trapped in fragility?
 

NEW PUBLICATION

DIALOGUES STRATEGIQUES VOL. 18

 

The Policy Center for the New South and the Geopolitical Center of HEC Paris have released the 18th volume of the Dialogues Stratégiques report, dedicated to the major geopolitical transformations unfolding across the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. This new edition offers a dual perspective: it examines Iran’s evolving role in reshaping regional balances and explores the war in Sudan as a mirror of Africa’s emerging conflict dynamics.

 

Bringing together thirteen leading experts, the report provides a cross-regional analysis of the Global South’s shifting landscape, where a multipolar order is taking shape. It highlights a transition from ideological confrontation to pragmatic power politics, within a context of weakening multilateral institutions and increasingly diffuse yet persistent rivalries... Read more

FRAGILE STATES IN FOCUS

From Bullet to Ballot: Syria’s Post-Assad Election

 

Bilal Mahli

 

This piece assesses the political implications of Syria’s anticipated post-Assad election, questioning whether institutional reforms and electoral processes can genuinely foster political pluralism, or if they risk entrenching existing power structures under a new guise... Read more

 

Sudan’s War: Implications for Regional Security

 

Kidane Kiros

 

Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in violent conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), rooted in a stalled democratic transition after 2019. Fighting has displaced over 8.5 million people, devastated the economy, and pushed 65.6% of the population below the poverty line. Limited diplomatic efforts have failed to secure peace, while the conflict threatens regional stability. Urgent, inclusive, and African Union-led initiatives are needed to address the root causes and prevent further humanitarian and security crises... Read more

 

Sudan’s Heritage at Risk

 

Meryam Amarir

 

Sudan’s conflict has turned cultural heritage into a casualty of war. Museums and historic sites have been looted or destroyed, fueling illicit trafficking and funding armed groups. Despite UNESCO and local efforts to document and protect artifacts, the country’s history and identity face severe threats. Urgent action is needed to safeguard heritage and include cultural restoration in post-conflict reconstruction... Read more

 

Ethiopia and the Path to Food Security

 

Isabelle Tsakok

 

Ethiopia combines social welfare programs with a development-state approach, yet persistent poverty, food insecurity, and conflict, compounded by climate change, challenge progress. The government’s ambitious structural reforms aim to balance state and private roles, offering a chance to transform these crises into sustainable development opportunities... Read more

 

NORTH AFRICA IN FOCUS

(FR) Tunisia-EU Partnership at a Crossroads

 

Ferid Belhaj

 

Thirty years on, the Tunisia-EU partnership is outdated and unbalanced, focused more on aid and border management than transformation. Tunisia must reduce dependence and leverage its strategic position, energy potential, and migration role to renegotiate a mutually beneficial, forward-looking relationship. Without reform, the partnership risks quietly fading into irrelevance... Read more

 

Tunisia and the Challenge of Food Security

 

Isabelle Tsakok

 

Tunisia’s economic stagnation and concentrated markets have hindered inclusive growth, while climate change threatens agricultural productivity and food security. Short-term subsidies have proven insufficient. To secure the future, Tunisia must transform its economy, strengthen climate resilience, attract investment, and create employment, aligning economic reform with democratic aspirations... Read more

 

(FR) Morocco and the EU: Towards a Renewed Partnership

 

Abdessalam Saad Jaldi

 

For over 30 years, Morocco-EU relations have balanced political pragmatism, economic openness, and strategic cooperation. From the 1995 Barcelona Process to the 2008 Advanced Status Agreement, the EU has become Morocco’s main economic partner. Today, the New Mediterranean Pact positions Morocco as a key regional player, offering a strategic opportunity to accelerate its emergence and transitions... Read more

 

(FR) Algeria After the Hirak Movement

 

Abdessalam Saad Jaldi

 

Post-2019 Algeria faces a complex phase marked by political, social, and economic challenges. The Hirak movement, sparked in February 2019 against President Bouteflika’s bid for a fifth term, demanded deep governance reforms, democratic transition, and economic diversification. Yet, the government’s response, limited reforms, constitutional tweaks in 2020, and sustained military influence, has largely maintained the status quo, leaving persistent tensions between citizens’ reform aspirations and the entrenched establishment... Read more

 

MULTIMEDIA

Libya, Iraq, Syria: The Fatal Mistakes of Post-War Governance

 

Post-conflict governance in MENA is hindered by weak institutions, historical legacies, and external interference. Libya and Syria illustrate the dangers of fragmented authority, stalled security reform, and complex reconstruction challenges. Effective recovery requires a holistic approach that balances political, economic, and security needs while fostering inclusive governance...Watch

Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU and Its Implications

 

In this episode, we discuss the Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, exploring its key terms and strategic motivations. We assess how the deal reshapes the security dynamics of the Horn of Africa and Ethiopia’s regional ambitions. We also examine Turkey’s mediating role and the significance of the Ankara agreement and to what extent this evolving landscape means for external powers and the region’s future...Watch

Security–Development Nexus in Fragile States

 

This episode explores how poverty, inequality, and climate change fuel insecurity and instability, often pushing fragile states toward militarization at the cost of social welfare. It examines why even stable nations are shifting resources from welfare to defense amid global threats, raising risks of social strain. The discussion probes whether citizens everywhere might face growing insecurity as military spending rises. Finally, it questions the role weakened international institutions can still play in supporting vulnerable countries...Watch
 

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