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You can feel it, can’t you? Not a collapse, not the dramatic fall of empires, but something subtler. The global order is not breaking apart; it is mutating, reshaping itself in real time before your eyes. Power concentrates in unexpected places: semiconductor supply chains, lithium mines, cloud servers that train artificial intelligence. The technological contest between the United States and China shapes trade policy and defines the architecture of the twenty-first century.

 

Industrial strategies have become geopolitical instruments. Tariffs are more than temporary irritants; they act as levers of influence. Export controls redraw technological borders. Sanctions reshape financial arteries, and access to rare earths and energy corridors has become a matter of national security. Economic warfare is structural, embedded in the fabric of global relations. Yet the story unfolds beyond Washington and Beijing. Across Africa, Latin America, and the broader Global South, countries actively shape outcomes, hedging, negotiating, building coalitions, and asserting strategic autonomy. They position themselves within supply chains as indispensable nodes.

 

Resilience, in this context, is strategic, not defensive. The transition from the existing World Order is marked by turbulence.  Central bank independence is debated, long-standing alliances show fractures, and sovereignty questions surface in unexpected places, from Washington’s fiscal politics to Greenland’s geopolitical sensitivities. Norms once considered stable face stress tests. The pressure is systemic, and the rules of engagement evolve fragmented data ecosystems, weaponized interdependence, recalibrating middle powers, climate transitions, and technological disruption reshape growth models.

 

Who will define the next equilibrium? Will it be shaped solely by technological superpowers locked in rivalry, or co-authored by resilient states of the New South, middle powers recalibrating their influence, and institutions adapting to a multipolar century? This is not a story of decline. It is a story of rivalry, resilience, and repositioning, and you are reading it as it is being written.

STRATEGIC RIVALRIES & FRAGMENTED POWER

The New South as a Frontline of the U.S.-China Technological Rivalry

 

Otaviano Canuto

 

The U.S.–China technological rivalry drives global economic and geopolitical competition. The U.S. leads in frontier innovation, especially semiconductors and AI, while China excels in large-scale implementation, manufacturing, and supply-chain control. This contest spans clean energy, critical minerals, and infrastructure across the New South. Success will hinge not on inventions alone, but on integrating technology, industry, and energy into national strategies... Read more

 

 

Internationally Fragmented Data Could Lead to Geopolitically Antagonistic AI

 

Hung Q. Tran

 

Divergent data regulations from EU privacy rules to China’s information control may create conflicting AI datasets. Models trained on these datasets could produce opposing outputs, shaping perceptions and decisions in governments, businesses, and society. Such antagonistic AI may deepen mistrust and geopolitical tensions. Data fragmentation is thus a key challenge for AI’s societal impact... Read more

 

The Renaissance of Economic Warfare

 

Ian O. Lesser

 

From tariffs and sanctions to resource weaponization and infrastructure attacks, economic security now dominates international debates. The strategic use of economic tools is reshaping global affairs like never before. Hard power is increasingly monetized for national gain, blending tradition with new technology. This renaissance of economic warfare raises critical questions about its scope and consequences... Read more

 

Global Order in Transition: Anxiety in the North, Agency in the South

 

Len Ishmael, Stephan Klingebiel, Andy Sumner

 

Northern anxiety and Southern agency define today’s global order. While the North sees crisis, eroding institutions, rising populism, and regulatory gaps, the Global South sees opportunity to reshape governance, build coalitions, and assert greater influence. Power is shifting, creating space for inclusive, flexible multilateralism. What appears as breakdown in the North may be rebalancing from the South, with agency now the key determinant of global cooperation... Read more

 

 

The Silent Majority of the New South

 

Ferid Belhaj, Otaviano Canuto

 

The erosion of U.S.-led hegemony is reshaping the survival landscape for small states in the New South. Once predictable under law and multilateral norms, global order is now marked by discretion and transactional bargaining. Vulnerable states, especially in MENA, rely on legal frameworks as their main shield against coercion. As multilateral rules weaken, global stability faces a profound stress test, risking a more exclusionary and fragile order... Read more

 

Taking Down the Sign: Carney’s Wake-Up Call to Middle Powers

 

Sofia Formigli

 

Mark Carney warns that the old rules-based international order no longer shields states, as economic integration has become a source of leverage and pressure. Reliance on cooperation rhetoric may now expose vulnerability rather than protect it. Countries are turning toward domestic resilience, strategic autonomy, and diversified capacities to navigate a fragmented world. For middle powers, collective action and pragmatic adaptation are key: if they are not at the table, they risk being on the menu... Read more

 

 

EXPERT INTERVIEWS

Technology, Military Power, and the New Geopolitics of Security

 

Technological and industrial capabilities are now central to state power, shaping military, economic, and geopolitical influence. AI, cyber warfare, autonomous systems, and advanced manufacturing are redefining power projection and deterrence. Leadership in these domains offers strategic advantage but also introduces new risks and vulnerabilities. Success increasingly depends on integrating technology, industry, and strategy to secure long-term sovereignty... Watch

 

 

Kevin Warsh at the Fed: What It Means for Inflation, Investors, and Emerging Markets

 

In this episode, we ask: What does Kevin Warsh’s nomination mean at a time when U.S. monetary policy faces rising inflation, growing debt, and fragile global markets? Could his leadership signal a change in how politics and central bank independence interact? And how might the Fed’s credibility and, by extension, global financial stability shift under his watch? We explore the stakes, the questions, and the possibilities, leaving the implications open for debate... Watch

 

 

Greenland: Testing Security and Alliances

 

Following Donald Trump’s statements asserting that the United States should acquire Greenland, fundamental questions about sovereignty, alliances, and the authority of international law have resurfaced. The Greenland case reveals the tensions between security imperatives, alliance cohesion, and legal norms, serving as a test of today’s international order. The exchange highlights how legal frameworks endure while being increasingly tested by power politics, sharpening Europe’s debate on collective defence and strategic autonomy... Watch

 

 

Is China a Reliable Partner for Africa?

 

In this episode, we explore China’s expanding presence in Africa, looking at investments in infrastructure, trade, and development projects. We discuss the opportunities these partnerships create, as well as the debates around debt, influence, and local impacts. Our expert shares diverse views on the benefits and challenges of China-Africa relations. The episode considers whether China can be seen as a reliable partner for Africa’s future... Watch

 

 

PODCAST

Reimagining the Global South’s Place in the World

 

This podcast explores how new narratives are reshaping the Global South’s position in the international system. Moving beyond the historical North–South paradigm, it highlights the rise of middle powers, the shift of global economic gravity toward the East, and the growing importance of South–South cooperation. These dynamics reflect a transition from aid-based relations to investment, industrialization, and value creation within the Global South... Listen

 

 

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