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There was a time when conflict was understood as an event, something that erupted, unfolded, and eventually subsided. Today, it feels less like an interruption and more like a condition. Conflict has seeped into the way the world is interpreted, shaping how actors perceive threats, define rivals, and defend their interests. Long before any visible confrontation, it takes root in narratives, assumptions, and the quiet normalization of suspicion.
When conflict becomes a lens rather than an outcome, the threshold for confrontation naturally declines, and distrust becomes structural rather than episodic. Positions harden not because compromise is impossible, but because it is no longer imagined as desirable in some cases. Disagreement ceases to be managed and instead is framed as fierce opposition. In such a climate, competition drifts almost effortlessly into conflict, and escalation becomes less a rupture than a continuation of an already adversarial mindset.
The logic of conflict today shapes policy choices and collective priorities worldwide. When defensive reflexes take hold, cooperation is approached with caution, strategic interests dominate, and proactive assessments of mutual dependencies emerge in multiple forms. The cost of this logic is not only measured in moments of war but in the gradual weakening of stability during periods formally considered peaceful.
Historically, wars have been tied to moments of major transformation, sometimes even resolutions. What distinguishes the present is the sense that conflicts are no longer pathways to settlement but mechanisms that deepen divisions when they fail to close chapters, prolong uncertainty and make fragmentation a defining feature of the international system.
In this edition, we step back to examine conflict in its many forms. Beyond open warfare, we explore how tensions unfold across economic rivalries, political confrontations, technological competition, and battles of narratives.
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TRENDING ISSUE – FOCUS ON THE MIDDLE EAST
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(FR) Conflictuality as an Approach to Power under Trump II
Driss Alaoui Belghiti
Under Trump II, conflict operates less as partisan polarization and more as a principle of power. Presidential speeches show how issues, from immigration and fraud to security and international rivalries, are woven into a single framework aimed at restoring order. Conflict functions as a technology of power: ranking threats, stabilizing divisions, and shaping political alignments. This logic follows a continuous electoral rhythm and extends into foreign policy, blurring the line between domestic and international politics... Read more
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(FR) War: Its Recurrences and Costs
Larabi Jaïdi
This piece analyzes the exorbitant economic costs and multidimensional consequences of armed conflicts, including direct military spending, infrastructure destruction, human losses, and systemic macroeconomic effects... Read more
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The Tripartite Gulf Power
Ferid Belhaj
In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar are shaping power through competing geoeconomic strategies rather than a shared identity. From infrastructure and energy deals to sovereign wealth, their rivalry affects regions like Turkey, South Asia, and Africa, and positions Gulf states as influential rule-makers in finance, energy security, and climate diplomacy... Read more
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Gaza Reconstruction: Do Not Repeat the Mistakes of the Past Four Efforts
Hafez Ghanem
With a ceasefire in place, Gaza faces its fifth reconstruction effort in under two decades. Past experiences show that while rebuilding infrastructure is manageable, the real challenge is reviving the economy and establishing unified, legitimate governance. Sustainable reconstruction requires tackling the deeper political and economic issues to prevent future conflicts... Read more
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Technology, Military Power, and the New Geopolitics of Security
Technological and industrial capabilities have become core instruments of state power, reshaping military strategies, economic competition, and global influence. The rapid rise of AI, cyber warfare, autonomous systems, and advanced manufacturing is redefining how states project power and deter adversaries. While technological leadership offers opportunities for innovation and strategic advantage, it also generates new risks related to escalation, dependency, and asymmetric vulnerabilities. In this evolving geopolitical landscape, the ability to integrate technology, industry, and strategy is increasingly decisive for long-term sovereignty and influence... Watch
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Global Implications of the Tariff War: A Focus on the New South
This interview analyzes how tariff wars are transforming global power dynamics, disrupting trade systems, and redefining trade policy as a geopolitical tool, while examining the risks and opportunities for emerging economies and the Global South, the repositioning of regions like Latin America and Africa within shifting supply chains, and whether these tensions mark a lasting shift toward a fragmented global trade system or a temporary phase... Watch
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(FR) Security Reserves and Their Role in Domestic Security Governance
This podcast examines the role of security reserves as a strategic pillar of domestic security resilience in a context marked by hybrid threats and prolonged crises. It highlights their operational contribution to standing forces, as well as their importance in strengthening the bond between citizens and core state institutions. The discussion also emphasizes the governance, training, and adaptability challenges these mechanisms face in response to evolving security threats... Watch
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Policy Center for the New South
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Ce traitement a été notifié et autorisé par la CNDP au titre du récépissé N° D-NL-718/2020
This processing has been notified and authorized by the CNDP under receipt N ° D-NL-718/2020
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