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Africa is entering a period in which energy, natural resources, and industrial policy are converging around a single strategic question: can the continent turn its extraordinary resource endowment into lasting productive power?

 

For decades, debates around Africa’s natural wealth focused on the risks of the “resource curse”: commodity dependence, price volatility, rent-seeking, weak institutions, and fiscal instability. Governments were therefore encouraged to manage revenues prudently, stabilize expenditure, and protect their economies from commodity cycles. These objectives remain important, but they are no longer sufficient. Today Africa’s resources acquire renewed strategic importance. The energy transition, geopolitical fragmentation, and competition over critical minerals have increased the value of the continent’s mineral commodities. Yet possessing strategic resources does not automatically confer strategic power. If these resources continue to leave African economies largely unprocessed, while manufacturing, technology, intellectual property, and higher-value activities remain elsewhere, the continent risks reproducing an old economic structure within a new global economy.

 

The same challenge applies to energy. New oil and gas producers are emerging along Africa’s Atlantic coast, while countries such as Nigeria could use gas not only for exports but also for electricity, fertilizers, petrochemicals, and industrial production. At the same time, the continent’s vast renewable potential and emerging interest in nuclear power are broadening the range of possible energy strategies. The central question is not which source should prevail, but whether African countries can build energy systems that are abundant, reliable, affordable, and capable of supporting industrialization. This is particularly important because many African countries must simultaneously expand energy access, build new infrastructure, and pursue decarbonization.

 

The measure of success should therefore go beyond barrels produced, minerals extracted, LNG exported, or renewable capacity installed. What matters is what these resources enable African economies to build. Do resource revenues finance infrastructure and human capital? Does mineral extraction generate processing and manufacturing ecosystems? Do energy investments provide reliable power to firms and households? Do international partnerships facilitate technology and knowledge transfer? Can African companies move into higher-value segments of global supply chains?

 

Answering these questions requires a modern industrial policy focused not on creating industries by decree, but on addressing the constraints that prevent productive transformation: electricity, infrastructure, logistics, skills, financing, technology, regulatory predictability, regional integration, and coordination between public and private investment.

 

The opportunity is significant as the global economy reorganizes around energy security, critical minerals, clean technologies, digital infrastructure, and strategic supply chains, Africa can use growing demand for its resources to negotiate greater investment, processing capacity, technology transfer, skills, and participation in global value chains.

 

Alternatively, it could once again become indispensable as a supplier of raw materials while remaining peripheral to the industries those materials make possible.

 

In this edition, we examine how Africa can move from resource endowment to productive power. We explore the choices surrounding critical minerals, oil and gas, renewable and nuclear energy, and the industrial policies needed to translate these assets into reliable energy, stronger domestic value chains, technological capability, jobs, and long-term economic resilience.

PUBLICATIONS

Industrial Policy for Resource-Rich African Least Developed Economies-Transforming Wealth into Productive Capacity

 

Hinh T. Dinh

 

This paper addresses the persistent challenge of resource dependence in the world's poorest countries, focusing on the ten poorest African nations where natural- resource rents average 14% of income. It argues that four decades of conventional policy advice, which treated resource dependence primarily as a revenue management problem, have failed to help these countries. While stabilization funds and permanent-income frameworks aim to smooth consumption, they do not answer the fundamental question of how to transform resource wealth into permanent productive capacity capable of generating income after rents decline... Read more

 

Should Africa Go Nuclear?

 

Hafez Ghanem

 

Africa is facing a massive electricity deficit that is impacting its economic and social development, and its ability to catch up with the rest of the world. It is imperative that the continent increase its electricity production to connect the 600 million people who are currently without access and to improve the quality of service for the millions who are suffering from frequent blackouts and load-shedding. Economic development in the 21st century will crucially depend on the digital economy and on artificial intelligence (AI), and both are big consumers of electricity... Read more

 

Nigeria as Africa's Oil Contingency Plan

 

Loubna Eddallal

 

The renewed instability in the Middle East has exposed Africa's continued vulnerability to external energy shocks. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies transit, have once again demonstrated that African fuel security remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments beyond the continent. While many African economies have traditionally relied on refined petroleum imports from Gulf producers, the current crisis is accelerating the emergence of a continental alternative... Read more

 

Nigeria: Africa’s Gas Powerhouse in the Making

 

Loubna Eddallal

 

Nigeria, long regarded as Africa’s oil powerhouse, is entering a new energy chapter, driven by the country’s strategic shift towards becoming the leading gas economy in the continent. With proven reserves exceeding 210 trillion cubic feet, Nigeria is set to emerge as Africa’s foremost gas producer and exporter. The government’s Decade of Gas Initiative, launched in 2021 by President Muhammadu Bihari, constitutes the official framework for this transition, which aims to diversify the economy by reducing dependence on oil and positioning natural gas as the key transition fuel in the African energy landscape. This shift aligns with the rising global demand for cleaner energy sources, since natural gas is viewed as a transition fuel... Read more

 

(FR) Guyana and Namibia, Two Atlantic Basin Countries on the New Map of the Global Oil Industry

 

Francis Perrin

 

The global geography of hydrocarbon production is by no means static. New oil and/or natural gas producers continue to emerge as a result of new discoveries, most of which are made by international oil companies (IOCs). Recent examples include Mozambique, which has been producing and exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) since late 2022; Senegal, which became an offshore oil producer in mid-2024; and Senegal and Mauritania, which jointly entered the ranks of LNG-exporting countries in 2025... Read more

 

Senegal in the Offshore Oil and Gas Era

 

Francis Perrin

 

On April 17, 2025, British oil and gas giant BP announced the export of the first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from offshore resources shared by Senegal and Mauritania. For the first time in their history, both countries have become LNG exporters. This milestone follows a series of pivotal developments in the region’s hydrocarbon sector. In late December 2024, offshore gas production began. By February 2025, LNG production had commenced. Earlier still, in June 2024, Senegal started producing offshore oil, marking another historic event... Read more

 

Africa's Minerals Will Shape the Future of Global Power

 

Otaviano Canuto, Sabrine Emran

 

As the US-China rivalry intensifies, both powers are courting mineral-rich African countries in an effort to secure critical raw materials. Translating Africa's vast natural-resource wealth into lasting development requires an infrastructure-led strategy that delivers long-term value for local communities. The clean-energy transition has fueled the global race for critical minerals, transforming elements like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths into strategic assets. At the center of this emerging resource war is the escalating rivalry between China and the United States, both of which are keenly aware that controlling mineral supply chains is essential to technological dominance... Read more

 

Morocco’s Green Transition

 

Rim Berahab & Sabrine Emran

 

This chapter of the Oxford Handbook of the Moroccan Economy examines the political economy of Morocco’s energy transition within the broader context of climate vulnerability and development imperatives. It analyzes the evolution of Morocco’s energy strategy from 2000 to 2022, focusing on the shift toward renewables, energy diversification, and climate resilience. The chapter assesses institutional reforms, investment patterns, and regulatory frameworks, highlighting the tension between state-led planning and market liberalization. It also investigates structural constraints—fossil-fuel lock-in, infrastructure bottlenecks, fragmented governance, and evaluates the role of innovation, green finance, and international partnerships... Read more

 

AFRICAFE

(FR) Global Energy Crisis: What Are the Risks for African Economies

 

Francis Perrin

 

The war against Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered a global energy crisis, disrupting oil and gas markets. In this episode of Africafé, Francis Perrin examines the consequences of this situation for African economies, highlighting the challenges facing importing countries and the opportunities available to certain producers. He also discusses the issues surrounding refining, energy security, and regional cooperation as keyways to strengthen the continent’s resilience to future shocks... Watch

 

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