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Fragmentation is no longer confined to geopolitics. It is reshaping energy markets, trade routes, payment systems, technology, corporate strategy and the way states position themselves internationally.

 

The widening consequences of the US–Iran war show how quickly conflict can spill across borders. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are affecting not only oil and gas, but also trade, fertilizer supplies, food security, public finances and investment. The burden is unevenly distributed, with countries far from the battlefield often absorbing costs they had little role in creating.

 

In this environment, strategic autonomy is becoming less about isolation and more about preserving room for maneuver. For governments, this can mean diversifying partnerships, avoiding excessive dependence and keeping credible alternatives open. Strategic hedging reflects this logic: autonomy depends not on avoiding commitments altogether, but on ensuring that those commitments do not eliminate future choices.

 

The same principle increasingly applies to businesses. African companies operating across markets, supply chains and regulatory systems are being pushed to think geopolitically, balancing integration, security and access while maintaining multiple strategic options.

 

This search for flexibility is also visible in the international system itself. Russia’s evolving Mediterranean posture, the growing strategic relevance of Atlantic cooperation, and competition between cross-border payment networks all point to a world in which influence is increasingly exercised through infrastructure, connectivity and access as much as through traditional power.

 

For developing economies, the challenge is therefore not simply to choose between competing blocs. It is to strengthen the capacity to absorb shocks, diversify dependencies and retain agency across trade, finance, technology and diplomacy.

 

In an age of fragmentation, strategic autonomy is ultimately the capacity to remain connected without becoming overly dependent, to cooperate without surrendering flexibility, and to preserve choices before external shocks make them disappear.

PUBLICATIONS

The Multiple Costs of the US–Iran War - From Hormuz to Europe and South Asia: the Widening Economic and Political Geography of the Conflict

 

Ferid Belhaj

 

Wars are decided by those who hold military power, but their costs are increasingly borne by those who have little or no voice in the decisions that start them. The US–Iran war shows this imbalance very clearly. Its economic consequences have gone far beyond the battlefield and have disrupted energy markets, trade routes, food supplies, public finances and investment in the Gulf, Europe, Africa and Asia. The most striking feature of the conflict, however, is not only the size of the damage but its very unequal distribution. Major hydrocarbon exporters have suffered severe economic contractions in spite of higher oil prices. Poorer importing countries face growing fiscal pressure. The United States, relatively protected at the aggregate level, has passed a substantial part of the costs to its own consumers and to economies far beyond its borders. China, for its part, was able to draw on its strategic reserves, which shows that economic resilience does not necessarily follow from military superiority... Read more

The Economic and Human Cost of the War on Iran: The Arab Countries Pay More

 

Hafez Ghanem

 

This paper examines the economic and human impacts of the first six months of the Iran war—from February to the end of August 2026, on Iran’s Arab neighbors and compares these impacts with those on the three countries directly involved, Iran, Israel and the United States. It reaches the surprising conclusion that Iran’s Arab neighbors have borne a higher cost than the three belligerents combined. For the purposes of the analysis presented here the Arab neighbors of Iran are divided into two groups: the three fragile and conflict-affected countries (FCS) with strong Iranian-allied militias, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen—and the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Each group separately has borne higher economic losses from the war than the three belligerents combined... Read more 

Strategic Hedging as Rational Diplomacy

 

Marcus Vinicius de Freitas

 

Strategic hedging is rational when it preserves a worthwhile choice at a tolerable cost while respecting existing commitments. Drawing on the literature on hedging and Latin American autonomy, this Policy Brief examines contrasting illustrations of that proposition. It distinguishes ambiguity about future alignment from uncertainty about existing obligations and explains how clearly bounded commitments can reconcile autonomy with credibility. The cases reveal different vulnerabilities across energy, security, technology, export concentration and regulatory discretion. Policy recommendations link diplomatic options to productive capabilities, institutional safeguards, and the administrative resources required to implement them. Hedging succeeds when governments can exercise the alternatives they retain and recognise when maintaining them no longer serves a defensible purpose... Read more

 

The ‘Strategic Possibilities Frontier’ of Global Reconfiguration

 

Paul Isbell

 

In this Policy Paper, Paul Isbell explores the evolving strategic possibilities for the Atlantic Basin amid a profound reconfiguration of the international system. Building on the Pan-Atlanticism: The Atlantic Basin in a Multipolar-Transnational World series, the paper examines how the growing strategic relevance of the Atlantic could create new opportunities for cooperation. It focuses on the interaction between two major forces shaping the global order: the “Trump 2 Shock” and the consolidation of multipolarity. The author argues that the future of pan-Atlanticism will depend on how these dynamics reshape the structure and distribution of international power. Although deeper Atlantic cooperation may currently appear unlikely, certain trajectories could make it increasingly feasible over the medium term. The paper considers how changing U.S. strategies could influence the prospects for pan-Atlantic cooperation and regionalism... Read more

 

(FR) The Art of Keeping One’s Options Open: Towards an African Approach to the Chief Geopolitical Officer

 

Florent Parmentier

 

This article argues that the Chief Geopolitical Officer (CGO) should be rethought through the lens of African companies’ experience. In a multipolar and fragmented environment, their main challenge lies not only in managing risks, but also in preserving several strategic options simultaneously, in line with a hedging approach. Three CGO models can be distinguished: intermediation (OCP, Tanger Med), regional integration (Ethiopian Airlines, M-Pesa), and securitization (pan-African banks). Drawing on several case studies, this Policy Brief shows that African companies already act as players in economic diplomacy and contribute to shaping their geopolitical environment... Read more

 

From Syria to Libya: Russia’s Adapted Mediterranean Strategy in the Post-Assad Era

 

Bilal Mahli, Lina Jaoid

 

In the two years since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Russia has restructured its Mediterranean presence. Although Russia’s limited and increasingly conditional access to the Khmeimim and Tartus facilities in Syria has been preserved, its presence in the country has morphed from Assad’s ‘patron-client’ configuration to a more negotiated engagement. Simultaneously, Russia has upgraded its force-projection and logistical infrastructure in eastern Libya, giving it an access path through the Mediterranean to its African theater. This policy paper argues that these strategic adjustments represent more of a redistribution of Russia’s regional stake, rather than an exit from Syria and its replacement with Libya. It maintains that the new geometry has increased both the geographic reach and the risks associated with Russian operations... Read more

 

The Rewiring of Globalization is Under Way

 

Hung Q. Tran

 

 

Trade diversification in turbulent times is on the minds of economic policymakers, given recent shifts in trading patterns as a response to elevated geopolitical and economic tensions. Indeed, this was among the most widely discussed themes at the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand. The importance of maintaining open trade channels was emphasized in the October World Economic Outlook and touched upon in panel discussions and informal hallway conversations. But while world trade has indeed shown signs of fractures, the term “deglobalization”—as used by some observers, is too over-reaching and simplistic to fully capture the complexity of changes going on in the global economy. A “rewiring of globalization” is a more appropriate way to describe the current situation... Read more

 

The Hollowing Out of the Global Order: What India Can Do to Respond

 

Len Ishmael, Stephan Klingebiel, Andy Sumner

 

 

The weakening of global institutions creates both risk and opportunity, placing India at the center of debates on reform and renewal. The global order is not collapsing outright but is gradually hollowing out, as institutions lose normative coherence and great power contestation reshapes rules from within. This moment of transition creates both risks of fragmentation and opportunities for redesign. For India, rising economic weight and a multi-aligned diplomatic posture position it at the center of this shift. The key question is whether India can translate its convening power and Global South leadership into durable institutional influence and coalition-driven reform... Read more

 

BOOK / REPORT

Presentation of the 20th Volume of the Strategic Dialogues

 

Since 2016, the Policy Center for the New South and the HEC Paris Center for Geopolitics have jointly organized two editions of the Strategic Dialogues each year. The initiative brings together experts, researchers, practitioners, and policymakers to discuss major geopolitical and security issues of relevance to both Europe and Africa. Designed as a policy-oriented platform, it provides an interactive setting for participants to confront and enrich their analyses. The partnership also aims to foster scientific and multidisciplinary dialogue and contribute to policy-relevant research on major international challenges. The discussions held during each edition are developed into Policy Papers and compiled in a joint publication. The 20th volume of the Strategic Dialogues reflects the debates of the previous edition. It was presented and discussed on October 28, 2026, at the Policy Center for the New South. The first part focuses on critical sovereignties, essential infrastructure, and strategic resources. The second examines the Mediterranean between regional cooperation and global rivalries... Read more

MULTIMEDIA

Emerging Powers and the Remaking of Global Order

 

The Policy Center for the New South, in partnership with The Asian Network, organized the webinar “Emerging Powers and the Remaking of Global Order,” which examined the growing role of emerging powers and the Global South in a rapidly transforming international system. The discussion explored how countries across Asia, Africa, the Gulf, and Latin America are navigating shifting power dynamics, pursuing greater strategic autonomy, and contributing to the evolution of global governance, while facing economic, geopolitical, technological, and climate-related constraints... Watch

Securing North Africa's Future: Geopolitical Dynamics, Regional Stability, and Strategic Cooperation

 

Lana Bleik

 

In this episode, Lana Bleik examines how North Africa has become a contested geopolitical hub where external powers (US, China, Russia, Turkey, Gulf states) compete through infrastructure, energy and security ties rather than formal alliances. She highlights water scarcity, desertification and food insecurity as structural drivers of instability, and describes borders in the Sahara-Sahel region as interconnected trafficking and migration corridors requiring intelligence sharing. She also notes uneven AI and cybersecurity preparedness across the region, with Egypt, Morocco and Algeria leading while fragile states like Libya lag behind... Listen

 

Africafé : Russia's Information Warfare in Africa

 

Thomas Kent

 

This episode explores Russia’s growing influence in Africa through media, information warfare, and anti-Western narratives. It examines how Moscow uses historical ties, social media, local influencers, and security partnerships to shape perceptions, while questioning the real scope and long-term impact of its presence on the continent... Watch

 

The Fragmenting Global Economy: How Should Developing Countries Respond?

 

Hung Q. Tran

 

Geopolitical competition is reshaping global trade, payment systems, and technological development, creating new challenges for developing countries. Dr. Hung Tran explores how diversification, regional cooperation, and stronger domestic capabilities can help countries such as Morocco navigate this fragmentation. He also examines how adopting AI while maintaining data sovereignty can reduce dependency and safeguard national interests... Listen

 

The Global Costs of Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz

 

Mehran Haghirian

 

In this episode, Mehran Haghirian explores the global economic consequences of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, beyond oil and gas. He examines their impact on trade, fertilizer supplies, and food security, highlighting the vulnerabilities of African and other developing economies. The discussion also considers how regional cooperation and stronger economic ties can help build resilience to future shocks... Listen

 

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